Start v Sandefjord prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

StartDrawSandefjord

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sandefjord 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandefjord are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Start 33%, draw 24%, Sandefjord 43%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Start v SandefjordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Start win33%

Draw24%

Sandefjord win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSør Arena

RefereeRohit Saggi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Start

Sandefjord

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
16	Start	23	−29	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sandefjord winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market30%

Us43%

~~Market~~30%

We make Sandefjord a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Start v Sandefjord~~1.37 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 24~~16 v 13

~~The market · Sandefjord win~~30% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sandefjord win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Start win	33%	44%	−11
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Sandefjord win	43%	30%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	60%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	36%	−2
Start or draw	57%	70%	−13
Start clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sandefjord clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.5 8.3 6.6 3.5 1 7.2 11.2 8.8 4.7 2 4.9 7.6 6.0 3.2 3 2.3 3.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Start down, Sandefjord across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Start at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sandefjord away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Start, 1.59 for Sandefjord. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

START

WLWLLL4–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 1–6

SANDEFJORD

DDLWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	+38	56
2	Viking	23	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Tromso	23	+11	40
5	Rosenborg	23	+12	37
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
9	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
10	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
11	Valerenga	23	−8	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	−15	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16