Start v Ham-Kam prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Start 2–4 Ham-Kam START WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Start win~~43%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.697

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Start win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Start 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Start v Ham-Kam
35′PENALTY · 35' Ham-Kam
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Start 0–1 Ham-Kam
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Start 0–1 Ham-Kam · Luc Mares
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Start 1–1 Ham-Kam · Luc Mares
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Start 1–1 Ham-Kam · John Olav Norheim
45′SECOND HALF Start 1–1 Ham-Kam
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Start 1–2 Ham-Kam · John Olav Norheim
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Start 1–2 Ham-Kam · Patrick Metcalfe
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Start · On: Nikolaos Koutsakos · Off: Hakon Lorentzen
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Start · On: Eirik Schulze · Off: Mikael Ugland
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ham-Kam · On: Aksel Baran Potur · Off: Fredrik Sjolstad
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Ham-Kam · On: David Benjamin · Off: Danilo Al-Saed
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ham-Kam · On: Mohamed Ofkir · Off: Duarte Moreira
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Start 1–2 Ham-Kam · Mohamed Ofkir
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Start 1–3 Ham-Kam · Mohamed Ofkir
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Start · On: nikola jojic · Off: Erlend Dahl Reitan
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Start · On: Fredrik Palerud · Off: Altin Ujkani
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ham-Kam · On: Ethan Amundsen-Day · Off: João Paulo Rodrigues Barros
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Start · On: Marius Nordal · Off: Steve Mvoue
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Start 1–4 Ham-Kam · Mohamed Ofkir
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Start 1–4 Ham-Kam · Mohamed Ofkir
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Start 2–4 Ham-Kam · Mohamed Ofkir
FTFULL TIME Start 2–4 Ham-Kam
FTStart 2–4 Ham-Kam · Start win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Start win43%

Draw24%

Ham-Kam win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueSør Arena

RefereeMohammad Usman Aslam

Line-ups

Start

5-3-2

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Start

Ham-Kam

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
16	Start	21	−22	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Start

5-3-2

26 M. Sjoeng

29 E. Reitan

5 S. A. Granheim

6 J. Norheim

3 A. Ujkani

12 D. Dashaev

10 S. Mvoue

23 E. Segberg

18 M. Ugland

17 J. Cornelius

20 H. Lorentzen

Coach · Azar Karadas

Substitutes

24 · S. Strand-Kolbjornsen

2 · F. Palerud

4 · J. Meyer

11 · E. Schulze

37 · F. Lien

9 · N. Koutsakos

8 · N. Jojic

35 · S. Samuyiwa

15 · M. Nordal

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

12 M. Sandberg

22 S. Nilsen

2 M. Gjone

23 F. Sjolstad

27 J. Barros

5 A. Andresen

10 L. Mettler

14 L. Mares

26 P. Metcalfe

18 D. Moreira

24 D. Al Saed

Coach · Thomas Myhre

Substitutes

13 · S. Ostraat

3 · E. Amundsen-Day

4 · H. Opsahl

7 · V. Jonsson

17 · A. Potur

6 · W. Osnes-Ringen

11 · M. Ofkir

28 · D. Benjamin

19 · H. Udahl

Our number · start winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

43% The market49%

Us43%

~~Market~~49%

We make Start a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Start win	43%	49%	−5
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Ham-Kam win	33%	26%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Start or draw	67%	74%	−6
Start clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ham-Kam clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 6.8 4.8 2.2 1 8.0 11.1 7.5 3.5 2 6.5 8.8 6.1 2.8 3 3.6 4.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Start down, Ham-Kam across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,379 Eliteserien matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Start at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ham-Kam away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Start, 1.39 for Ham-Kam. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~HAM 2–1 STA

Form · last six in Eliteserien

START

LLWLWL0–3 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

HAM-KAM

DLDLLL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–5 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
2	Viking	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	21	−22	16