Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–3 Rosenborg SARPSBORG 08 FF WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarpsborg 08 FF win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarpsborg 08 FF win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sarpsborg 08 FF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–38
2′KICK-OFF Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg
29′Rosenborg find the net on 29′. 0–0 · 36–30–35
30′We said Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–64
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 14–21–64
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Rosenborg · Aslak Fonn Witry
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Rosenborg win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Sarpsborg 08 FF win 14%)
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Mathias Ullereng Kjolo · Rosenborg
37′Adrian Nilsen Pereira scores for Rosenborg on 36′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
37′We said Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Rosenborg · Adrian Nilsen Pereira
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sander Johan Christiansen · Sarpsborg 08 FF
45′HALF-TIME Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Rosenborg
46′SECOND HALF Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–2 Rosenborg
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Aimar Sher · Off: Peter Reinhardsen Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Daniel Seland Karlsbakk · Sarpsborg 08 FF
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Anders Hiim · Off: Andreas Hansen Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Claus Babo Niyukuri · Off: Eirik Wichne Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rosenborg · On: Jesper Reitan Sunde · Off: Noah Sahsah Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rosenborg · On: Dino Islamović · Off: Maciej Soboczynski Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Mads Bomholt · Rosenborg
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Victor Emanuel Halvorsen · Off: Sander Johan Christiansen Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rosenborg · On: Tobias Solheim Dahl · Off: Adrian Nilsen Pereira Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rosenborg · On: Iver Fossum · Off: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Camil Mmaee Nwameben · Off: Noa Williams Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rosenborg · On: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen · Off: Dino Islamović Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Jonas Sogaard Mortensen · Rosenborg
90′Full time, 0–3. We called Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–3 · 0–0–100
90′90′: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen on the scoresheet for Rosenborg, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–3 Rosenborg
FTFULL TIME Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–3 Rosenborg
FTSarpsborg 08 FF 0–3 Rosenborg · Sarpsborg 08 FF win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sarpsborg 08 FF just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarpsborg 08 FF 39%, draw 24%, Rosenborg 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sarpsborg 08 FF v RosenborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 FF win39%

Draw24%

Rosenborg win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 24

VenueSarpsborg Stadion

RefereeEspen Eskas

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF

4-4-2

Rosenborg

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Rosenborg

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 10 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sarpsborg 08 FF

4-4-2

87 L. Oy

32 E. Wichne

4 B. Utvik

24 S. Rosted

20 P. Reinhardsen

10 S. Sorli

8 S. Christiansen

77 O. Skarsem

17 N. Williams

33 A. Nibe

11 D. Karlsbakk

Coach · Even Sel

Substitutes

1 · J. Larsen

21 · A. Hiim

2 · M. Lode

12 · C. Niyukuri

5 · L. Hoyland

22 · V. E. Halvorsen

6 · A. Sher

50 · M. M. Eidal

7 · Camil Mmaee

Rosenborg

4-4-2

1 L. Wahlstedt

16 A. F. Witry

4 M. K. Ceide

23 M. Mampassi

19 A. Pereira

11 N. Sahsah

17 M. Bomholt

6 M. Kjolo

22 J. Svensson

30 M. Soboczynski

35 E. K. Ceide

Coach · Freyr Alexandersson

Substitutes

12 · R. Sandberg

15 · J. Mortensen

3 · T. Dahl

8 · I. Fossum

20 · A. Borgersen

14 · J. Reitan-Sunde

9 · D. Islamovic

Our number · sarpsborg 08 ff winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarpsborg 08 FF v Rosenborg~~1.61 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 14 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 34~~9 v 5

~~The market · Sarpsborg 08 FF win~~41% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarpsborg 08 FF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarpsborg 08 FF win	39%	41%	−2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Rosenborg win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	61%	63%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw	62%	65%	−3
Sarpsborg 08 FF clean sheet	21%	–	–
Rosenborg clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.4 6.5 5.2 2.8 1 6.6 10.5 8.1 4.3 2 5.4 8.3 6.5 3.4 3 2.9 4.5 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarpsborg 08 FF down, Rosenborg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Eliteserien matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rosenborg away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.58 for Rosenborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ROS 2–1 SAR · ROS 2–3 SAR · SAR 2–2 ROS · ROS 1–1 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 14 Aug

SARPSBORG 08 FF

LDDDLW1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–2

ROSENBORG

WLWWWD2–1 · 2–4 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	+38	56
2	Viking	23	+37	56
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	−9	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	−15	26
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Aalesund	23	−12	24
14	Valerenga	22	−10	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	22	−24	16