Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sarpsborg 08 FFDrawAalesund

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sarpsborg 08 FF 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 FF are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarpsborg 08 FF 57%, draw 20%, Aalesund 23%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Sarpsborg 08 FF v AalesundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 FF win57%

Draw20%

Aalesund win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSarpsborg Stadion

RefereeMischa Kellerhals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarpsborg 08 ff winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market51%

Us57%

~~Market~~51%

We make Sarpsborg 08 FF a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarpsborg 08 FF v Aalesund~~2.20 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 24~~11 v 14

~~The market · Sarpsborg 08 FF win~~51% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sarpsborg 08 FF win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarpsborg 08 FF win	57%	51%	+6
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Aalesund win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	68%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw	77%	74%	+3
Sarpsborg 08 FF clean sheet	26%	–	–
Aalesund clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.1 3.9 2.7 1 6.4 8.5 5.7 2.6 2 7.0 9.2 6.1 2.8 3 5.1 6.7 4.5 2.0 4 2.9 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarpsborg 08 FF down, Aalesund across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Aalesund away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.35 for Aalesund. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~5 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AAL 2–4 SAR · AAL 3–2 SAR · SAR 3–1 AAL · AAL 1–3 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

SARPSBORG 08 FF

DDDLWL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–2 · 0–3

AALESUND

LWLWLW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16