Sandefjord v Lillestrom prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Sandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom SANDEFJORD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sandefjord win~~48%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sandefjord win at 48%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sandefjord 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
2′KICK-OFF Sandefjord v Lillestrom
14′A goal for Lillestrom on 13′. 0–0 · 46–27–27
14′A goal for Lillestrom on 14′. 0–0 · 46–27–27
18′We said Sandefjord at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
18′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sandefjord 0–1 Lillestrom · Thomas Lehne Olsen (assist Frederik Elkaer)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Sandefjord win: 48% at kick-off, 21% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Lillestrom win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Sandefjord win 21%)
25′We said Sandefjord at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
26′We said Sandefjord at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–81
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Sandefjord win: 48% at kick-off, 6% now
27′Lillestrom ahead on 24′ through Eric Kitolano. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–12–81
32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Sandefjord · On: Alf Lukas Noel Gronneberg · Off: Elia Hadaya
37′We said Sandefjord at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
45′HALF-TIME Sandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom
45′SECOND HALF Sandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Felix Vá · Lillestrom
52′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 2–8–90
56′Sandefjord have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lillestrom · On: Winston Robin Yaw Paintsil · Off: Henrik Molvaer Melland
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Lillestrom · On: Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim · Off: Eric Kitolano
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sandefjord · On: Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo · Off: Sebastian Holm Mathisen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sandefjord · On: Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen · Off: Evangelos Patoulidis
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sandefjord · On: Fredrik Carson Pedersen · Off: Martin Hellan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sandefjord · On: Vetle Walle Egeli · Off: Gustav Højbjerg
75′16 shots for Sandefjord, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lillestrom · On: Daniel Bassi · Off: Frederik Elkaer
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lillestrom · On: Fredrik Gulbrandsen · Off: Thomas Lehne Olsen
93′20 shots for Sandefjord, 10 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim · Lillestrom
FTFULL TIME Sandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom
FTSandefjord 0–2 Lillestrom · Sandefjord win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandefjord are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandefjord 48%, draw 25%, Lillestrom 27%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Sandefjord v LillestromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sandefjord win48%

Draw25%

Lillestrom win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueSandefjord Arena

RefereeTore Hansen

Line-ups

Sandefjord

4-2-3-1

Lillestrom

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandefjord

Lillestrom

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sandefjord

4-2-3-1

30 E. Hadaya

2 M. Hellan

13 R. Holten

44 X. Lambrix

5 G. Hojbjerg

6 S. Mork

10 E. Gigovic

7 E. Patoulidis

14 E. Pettersen

27 J. Dunsby

24 S. Mathisen

Coach · Andreas Tegstrom

Substitutes

1 · A. Gronneberg

4 · F. Pedersen

16 · H. Krogelien

3 · V. Egeli

31 · H. B. Skretteberg

37 · J. Vester

32 · D. Skaarud

9 · O. Kapskarmo

19 · B. Berntsen

Lillestrom

4-3-3

12 P. Dahlberg

3 S. Ottesen

5 S. Foss

47 S. Kristiansen

11 F. Elkaer

29 Y. Ibrahimaj

21 F. Ottosson

16 H. Melland

20 Felix Va

10 T. Olsen

17 E. Kitolano

Coach · Hans Odegaard

Substitutes

1 · S. Hagerup

28 · R. Gabrielsen

2 · L. Ranger

18 · K. Krygard

26 · Y. Paintsil

22 · D. Bassi

8 · F. Gulbrandsen

15 · G. Nordh

14 · G. Nyheim

Our number · sandefjord winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

48% The market37%

Us48%

~~Market~~37%

We make Sandefjord a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sandefjord v Lillestrom~~1.64 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 33~~12 v 6

~~The market · Sandefjord win~~37% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sandefjord win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandefjord win	48%	37%	+11
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Lillestrom win	27%	37%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	64%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Sandefjord or draw	73%	63%	+10
Sandefjord clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lillestrom clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.5 7.0 4.1 1 10.0 11.6 6.6 2.6 2 8.2 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 4.5 5.1 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandefjord down, Lillestrom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Eliteserien matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandefjord at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lillestrom away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Sandefjord, 1.15 for Lillestrom. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LIL 3–1 SAN · LIL 0–3 SAN · SAN 0–1 LIL · SAN 1–0 LIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 15 Aug

SANDEFJORD

WDDLWD2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1

LILLESTROM

DLWWLD1–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	+38	56
2	Viking	23	+37	56
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	−9	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	−15	26
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Aalesund	23	−12	24
14	Valerenga	22	−10	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	22	−24	16