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Rosenborg v Sandefjord

Rosenborg

1–1Full time

Sandefjord

Eliteserien · SAT 10 OCT · Lerkendal Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Rosenborg 1–1 Sandefjord ROSENBORG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rosenborg win~~54%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.951

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rosenborg win at 54%.
2′KICK-OFF Rosenborg v Sandefjord
3′Much as we predicted: Rosenborg was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Rosenborg 1–0 Sandefjord
6′Rosenborg ahead on 5′ through Amin Chiakha. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Rosenborg 1–0 Sandefjord · Amin Chiakha
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
8′Rosenborg ahead on 5′ through Amin Chiakha. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–9
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
10′We published Rosenborg at 54%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
12′We published Rosenborg at 54%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–8
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Amin Chiakha · Rosenborg
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Ole Selnaes · Rosenborg
45′SECOND HALF Rosenborg 1–0 Sandefjord
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Tobias Borkeeiet · Sandefjord
46′SECOND HALF Rosenborg 1–0 Sandefjord
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Rosenborg win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Sandefjord
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' Tobias Borkeeiet · Sandefjord
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Nemcik Tomas · Rosenborg
60′🟥 RED CARD · 60' Rosenborg
63′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Ole Selnaes · Rosenborg
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sandefjord · On: Bendik Slotfeldt Berntsen · Off: Evangelos Patoulidis
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rosenborg · On: Aslak Fonn Witry · Off: Jonas Svensson
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rosenborg · On: Aslak Fonn Witry · Off: Jonas Svensson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sandefjord · On: Vetle Walle Egeli · Off: Gustav Højbjerg
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Sandefjord · On: Fredrik Carson Pedersen · Off: Martin Hellan
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rosenborg 1–1 Sandefjord · Amin Chiakha
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Rosenborg 1–1 Sandefjord · Vetle Walle Egeli
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rosenborg · On: David Duris · Off: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sandefjord · On: Edvard Sundbö Pettersen · Off: Jakob Maslo Dunsby
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sandefjord · On: Jakob Vester Nielsen · Off: Ervin Gigovic
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rosenborg · On: Iver Fossum · Off: Mads Bomholt
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rosenborg · On: Mark Mampassi · Off: Nemcik Tomas
FTFULL TIME Rosenborg 1–1 Sandefjord
FTRosenborg 1–1 Sandefjord · Rosenborg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rosenborg win54%

Draw22%

Sandefjord win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Lerkendal Stadion

Referee · Christian Moen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rosenborg

4-4-2

1 L. Wahlstedt

22 J. Svensson

4 M. K. Ceide

21 T. Nemcik

19 A. Pereira

11 N. Sahsah

17 M. Bomholt

10 O. Selnaes

6 M. Kjolo

18 A. Chiakha

35 E. K. Ceide

Coach · Freyr Alexandersson

Substitutes

12 · R. Sandberg

15 · J. Mortensen

16 · A. F. Witry

23 · M. Mampassi

3 · T. Dahl

8 · I. Fossum

29 · D. Duris

9 · D. Islamovic

7 · S. Nordli

Sandefjord

4-3-3

30 E. Hadaya

2 M. Hellan

13 R. Holten

44 X. Lambrix

5 G. Hojbjerg

10 E. Gigovic

8 T. Borkeeiet

6 S. Mork

7 E. Patoulidis

24 S. Mathisen

27 J. Dunsby

Coach · Andreas Tegstrom

Substitutes

1 · A. Gronneberg

4 · F. Pedersen

16 · H. Krogelien

3 · V. Egeli

31 · H. B. Skretteberg

37 · J. Vester

14 · E. Pettersen

19 · B. Berntsen

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rosenborg

4-4-2

1 L. Wahlstedt

22 J. Svensson

4 M. K. Ceide

21 T. Nemcik

19 A. Pereira

11 N. Sahsah

17 M. Bomholt

10 O. Selnaes

6 M. Kjolo

18 A. Chiakha

35 E. K. Ceide

Coach · Freyr Alexandersson

Substitutes

12 · R. Sandberg

15 · J. Mortensen

16 · A. F. Witry

23 · M. Mampassi

3 · T. Dahl

8 · I. Fossum

29 · D. Duris

9 · D. Islamovic

7 · S. Nordli

Sandefjord

4-3-3

30 E. Hadaya

2 M. Hellan

13 R. Holten

44 X. Lambrix

5 G. Hojbjerg

10 E. Gigovic

8 T. Borkeeiet

6 S. Mork

7 E. Patoulidis

24 S. Mathisen

27 J. Dunsby

Coach · Andreas Tegstrom

Substitutes

1 · A. Gronneberg

4 · F. Pedersen

16 · H. Krogelien

3 · V. Egeli

31 · H. B. Skretteberg

37 · J. Vester

14 · E. Pettersen

19 · B. Berntsen

Our number · rosenborg winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

54% The market69%

Us54%

~~Market~~69%

We make Rosenborg a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rosenborg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rosenborg win	54%	69%	−15
Draw	22%	18%	+5
Sandefjord win	23%	13%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	59%	68%	−9
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	37%	48%	−11
Rosenborg or draw	77%	87%	−10
Rosenborg clean sheet	32%	–	–
Sandefjord clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.9 5.5 3.2 1 8.9 10.3 5.9 2.3 2 8.4 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 5.3 6.1 3.5 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rosenborg down, Sandefjord across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,377 Eliteserien matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.91 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rosenborg at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sandefjord away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Rosenborg, 1.16 for Sandefjord. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 16:50. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.91

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–0 ROS · ROS 1–1 SAN · SAN 2–0 ROS · SAN 0–1 ROS

Form · last six in Eliteserien

ROSENBORG

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 3–1

SANDEFJORD

LWDDLW0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	22	+36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	+34	50
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	21	+9	33
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	21	−6	23
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	−19	19
16	Start	21	−22	16