Molde v Start prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Molde 6–1 Start MOLDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Molde win~~71%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.129

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.132

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Molde win at 71%.
1′Much as we predicted: Molde was 71% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–13
1′KICK-OFF Molde v Start
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Santino Samuyiwa · Start
31′29′: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde. 0–0 · 62–23–15
31′We published Molde at 71%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
31′⚽ GOAL · 29' Molde 1–0 Start · Sander Hestetun Kilen
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Molde win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 85–11–4
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Erlend Segberg · Start
40′We published Molde at 71%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Molde 2–0 Start
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Molde win: 71% at kick-off, 96% now
41′39′: Kristian Lonebu on the scoresheet for Molde, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Molde 2–0 Start
45′SECOND HALF Molde 2–0 Start
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Start · On: Nikolaos Koutsakos · Off: Santino Samuyiwa
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Molde 2–1 Start
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Molde win: 71% at kick-off, 85% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Fredrik Kristensen Dahl · Molde
54′PENALTY MISSED · 54' Nikolaos Koutsakos · Start
56′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–2–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Molde 3–1 Start
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Molde win: 71% at kick-off, 97% now
57′Caleb Sery scores for Molde on 56′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
65′We published Molde at 71%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
65′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Molde 4–1 Start
68′65′: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Molde · On: Daniel Daga · Off: Mats Møller Dæhli
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Molde · On: Birk Risa · Off: Caleb Sery
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Molde · On: Niklas Ödegard · Off: Mathias Lovik
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Start · On: nikola jojic · Off: Mikael Ugland
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Eirik Haugan · Molde
77′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Molde 5–1 Start
78′Molde ahead on 77′ through Sander Hestetun Kilen. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
78′Sander Hestetun Kilen scores for Molde on 76′. 6–1 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Molde 6–1 Start
79′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Molde · On: Oskar Spiten Nysaeter · Off: Sander Hestetun Kilen
80′Emil Breivik scores for Molde on 79′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Molde · On: Trent Kone-Doherty · Off: Kristian Lonebu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Start · On: Altin Ujkani · Off: Erlend Dahl Reitan
94′Full time, 6–1. We called Molde at 71% — that one lands. 6–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Molde 6–1 Start
FTMolde 6–1 Start · Molde win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Molde are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molde 71%, draw 16%, Start 13%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Molde v StartBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Molde win71%

Draw16%

Start win13%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueAker Stadion

RefereeStian Rovig Sletner

Line-ups

Molde

4-4-2

Start

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molde

Start

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Molde	22	+12	37
16	Start	22	−24	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Molde

4-4-2

22 A. Posiadala

25 M. Linnes

19 E. Haugan

27 F. Dahl

8 M. Lovik

11 C. Zady

17 M. Daehli

23 S. Granaas

16 S. Kilen

20 K. Lonebu

10 E. Breivik

Coach · Sindre Tjelmeland

Substitutes

12 · P. Lervik

33 · B. Risa

26 · S. Kabini

28 · V. Bender

6 · N. Odegard

30 · D. Daga

9 · J. Abdullai

24 · T. Kone-Doherty

21 · O. Spiten-Nysaeter

Start

5-3-2

26 M. Sjoeng

27 O. Toure

29 E. Reitan

5 S. A. Granheim

6 J. Norheim

12 D. Dashaev

10 S. Mvoue

23 E. Segberg

18 M. Ugland

20 H. Lorentzen

35 S. Samuyiwa

Coach · Azar Karadas

Substitutes

24 · S. Strand-Kolbjornsen

3 · A. Ujkani

2 · F. Palerud

4 · J. Meyer

9 · N. Koutsakos

8 · N. Jojic

17 · J. Cornelius

Our number · molde winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

71% The market71%

Us71%

~~Market~~71%

We make Molde a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Molde v Start~~2.64 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 8 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 37 v 16~~4 v 16

~~The market · Molde win~~71% · ours 71%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Molde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molde win	71%	71%	0
Draw	16%	17%	−1
Start win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	70%	70%	0
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	88%	86%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	50%	50%	0
Molde or draw	87%	88%	−1
Molde clean sheet	36%	–	–
Start clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 2.7 1 6.7 7.1 3.7 2 8.7 9.0 4.7 3 7.6 7.7 4.0 4 5.0 5.1 2.7 5 2.7 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Molde down, Start across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,387 Eliteserien matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.0% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Molde at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Start away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Molde, 1.04 for Start. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 1–1 MOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 8 Aug

MOLDE

WWWWLD3–2 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

START

LWLWLL0–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	+38	56
2	Viking	23	+37	56
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	−9	28
11	Ham-Kam	23	−15	26
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Aalesund	23	−12	24
14	Valerenga	22	−10	23
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	22	−24	16