Molde v Fredrikstad prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MoldeDrawFredrikstad

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Molde 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Molde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molde 59%, draw 21%, Fredrikstad 19%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Molde v FredrikstadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Molde win59%

Draw21%

Fredrikstad win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:15

RoundMatchday 12

VenueAker Stadion

RefereeOla Hobber Nilsen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molde

Fredrikstad

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Molde	23	+17	40
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · molde winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 03:58 · locked at kick-off

59% The market64%

Us59%

~~Market~~64%

We make Molde a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Molde v Fredrikstad~~2.01 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 29~~3 v 9

~~The market · Molde win~~64% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Molde win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Molde win	59%	64%	−5
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Fredrikstad win	19%	16%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	66%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Molde or draw	81%	84%	−3
Molde clean sheet	35%	–	–
Fredrikstad clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.9 5.0 2.6 1 9.4 9.9 5.2 2 9.4 9.7 5.1 3 6.3 6.5 3.4 4 3.2 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Molde down, Fredrikstad across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Molde at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fredrikstad away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Molde, 1.05 for Fredrikstad. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~MOL 1–2 FRE · FRE 4–2 MOL · FRE 0–0 MOL · MOL 6–1 FRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

MOLDE

WWWLDW4–3 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 6–1

FREDRIKSTAD

WLDDDL4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16