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Model 1.1

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Lillestrom v Molde

Lillestrom
2–2Full time
Molde

Eliteserien · SUN 11 OCT · Åråsen Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Lillestrom 2–2 Molde MOLDE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Molde win42%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.875
The market’s Brier score0.860

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Molde win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Molde 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
  3. 4′Little has changed for our model: Molde 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
  4. 11′10′ and it is 0–1: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde. 0–1 · 15–19–67
  5. 13′10′ and it is 0–1: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde. 0–1 · 14–19–67
  6. 16′Lillestrom ahead on 16′ through Felix Vá. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–27–40
  7. 26′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–2 · 12–20–68
  8. 28′Emil Breivik scores for Molde on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–20–68
  9. 31′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–2 · 11–20–68
  10. 38′Emil Breivik scores for Molde on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–20–69
  11. 41′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 10–21–70
  12. 43′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
  13. 61′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
  14. 63′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 5–19–76
  15. 70′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  16. 76′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  17. 80′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  18. 86′We said Molde at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 6–87–7
  19. 89′87′ and it is 2–2: Sander Moen Foss on the scoresheet for Lillestrom. 2–2 · 2–97–2
  20. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  21. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
  22. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  23. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  24. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  25. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
  26. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  27. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
  28. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  29. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  30. 92′We said Molde at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  31. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  32. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
  33. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  34. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  35. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
  36. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Molde win 0%)
  37. 93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Lillestrom 2–3 Molde · Sander Moen Foss
  38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
  39. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Molde win 0%)
  40. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  41. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  42. FTFULL TIME Lillestrom 2–2 Molde
  43. FTLillestrom 2–2 Molde · Molde win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lillestrom win34%
Draw24%
Molde win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:15

VenueÅråsen Stadion

RefereeEspen Eskas

Line-ups

Lillestrom

4-1-4-1

Molde

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lillestrom

Molde

21Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Molde21+1236
6Lillestrom21−132

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lillestrom

4-1-4-1

12 P. Dahlberg

2 L. Ranger

5 S. Foss

28 R. Gabrielsen

11 F. Elkaer

21 F. Ottosson

22 D. Bassi

14 G. Nyheim

17 E. Kitolano

20 Felix Va

10 T. Olsen

Coach · Hans Odegaard

Substitutes

1 · S. Hagerup

47 · S. Kristiansen

3 · S. Ottesen

16 · H. Melland

29 · Y. Ibrahimaj

18 · K. Krygard

26 · Y. Paintsil

8 · F. Gulbrandsen

15 · G. Nordh

Molde

4-4-2

22 A. Posiadala

25 M. Linnes

19 E. Haugan

27 F. Dahl

8 M. Lovik

11 C. Zady

30 D. Daga

23 S. Granaas

16 S. Kilen

20 K. Lonebu

10 E. Breivik

Coach · Sindre Tjelmeland

Substitutes

12 · P. Lervik

33 · B. Risa

26 · S. Kabini

17 · M. Daehli

28 · V. Bender

6 · N. Odegard

24 · T. Kone-Doherty

21 · O. Spiten-Nysaeter

43 · J. Fugelsnes

Our number · molde winPublished 11 Oct 17:22
42% The market38%
Us42%
Market38%

We make Molde a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 15:36
Our probability · molde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lillestrom win34%37%−3
Draw24%24%−1
Molde win42%38%+4
Over 2.5 goals60%69%−9
Both teams to score62%70%−9
Over 1.5 goals81%86%−5
Over 3.5 goals38%49%−11
Lillestrom or draw58%62%−4
Lillestrom clean sheet20%––
Molde clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 4.7 7.3 6.1 3.4 1 6.5 10.7 8.7 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 7.7 6.3 3.5 3 2.4 3.8 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lillestrom down, Molde across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.89
Over 2.56 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsMOL 0–1 LIL · LIL 1–2 MOL · MOL 3–0 LIL · MOL 4–0 LIL

Form · last six in Eliteserien

LILLESTROM

LDLWWL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

MOLDE

LWWWWL1–2 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bodo/Glimt22+3653
2Viking22+3653
3Tromso21+1138
4Molde21+1236
5Rosenborg22+934
6Lillestrom21−132
7Brann22+529
8Fredrikstad21−728
9Sarpsborg 08 FF21−525
10KFUM Oslo21−1025
11Sandefjord22−624
12Valerenga21−923
13Ham-Kam21−1523
14Aalesund21−1321
15Kristiansund BK22−2119
16Start21−2216

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.