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Lillestrom v Molde
Lillestrom
MoldeEliteserien · SUN 11 OCT · Åråsen Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Molde win at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Molde 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
- 4′Little has changed for our model: Molde 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
- 11′10′ and it is 0–1: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde. 0–1 · 15–19–67
- 13′10′ and it is 0–1: Sander Hestetun Kilen on the scoresheet for Molde. 0–1 · 14–19–67
- 16′Lillestrom ahead on 16′ through Felix Vá. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–27–40
- 26′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–2 · 12–20–68
- 28′Emil Breivik scores for Molde on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–20–68
- 31′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–2 · 11–20–68
- 38′Emil Breivik scores for Molde on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–20–69
- 41′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 10–21–70
- 43′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
- 61′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
- 63′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 5–19–76
- 70′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
- 76′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–2 · 2–14–84
- 80′We said Molde at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
- 86′We said Molde at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 6–87–7
- 89′87′ and it is 2–2: Sander Moen Foss on the scoresheet for Lillestrom. 2–2 · 2–97–2
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 91' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
- 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
- 92′We said Molde at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Molde win 2%)
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
- 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
- 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Molde win 0%)
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Lillestrom 2–3 Molde · Sander Moen Foss
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 0% now
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Draw is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Molde win 0%)
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 93' Molde win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
- 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Molde win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
- FTFULL TIME Lillestrom 2–2 Molde
- FTLillestrom 2–2 Molde · Molde win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.
The model’s prediction on this page stays free.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Lillestrom win34%
Molde win42%Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:15
VenueÅråsen Stadion
RefereeEspen Eskas
Match timeline
All events
LillestromMIN
MoldeEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Lillestrom
4-1-4-1
Molde
4-4-2
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Lillestrom
Molde
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
Line-ups
Lillestrom
4-1-4-1
12 P. Dahlberg
2 L. Ranger
5 S. Foss
28 R. Gabrielsen
11 F. Elkaer
21 F. Ottosson
22 D. Bassi
14 G. Nyheim
17 E. Kitolano
20 Felix Va
10 T. Olsen
Coach · Hans Odegaard
Substitutes
1 · S. Hagerup
47 · S. Kristiansen
3 · S. Ottesen
16 · H. Melland
29 · Y. Ibrahimaj
18 · K. Krygard
26 · Y. Paintsil
8 · F. Gulbrandsen
15 · G. Nordh
Molde
4-4-2
22 A. Posiadala
25 M. Linnes
19 E. Haugan
27 F. Dahl
8 M. Lovik
11 C. Zady
30 D. Daga
23 S. Granaas
16 S. Kilen
20 K. Lonebu
10 E. Breivik
Coach · Sindre Tjelmeland
Substitutes
12 · P. Lervik
33 · B. Risa
26 · S. Kabini
17 · M. Daehli
28 · V. Bender
6 · N. Odegard
24 · T. Kone-Doherty
21 · O. Spiten-Nysaeter
43 · J. Fugelsnes
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Lillestrom
4-1-4-1
12 P. Dahlberg
2 L. Ranger
5 S. Foss
28 R. Gabrielsen
11 F. Elkaer
21 F. Ottosson
22 D. Bassi
14 G. Nyheim
17 E. Kitolano
20 Felix Va
10 T. Olsen
Coach · Hans Odegaard
Substitutes
1 · S. Hagerup
47 · S. Kristiansen
3 · S. Ottesen
16 · H. Melland
29 · Y. Ibrahimaj
18 · K. Krygard
26 · Y. Paintsil
8 · F. Gulbrandsen
15 · G. Nordh
Molde
4-4-2
22 A. Posiadala
25 M. Linnes
19 E. Haugan
27 F. Dahl
8 M. Lovik
11 C. Zady
30 D. Daga
23 S. Granaas
16 S. Kilen
20 K. Lonebu
10 E. Breivik
Coach · Sindre Tjelmeland
Substitutes
12 · P. Lervik
33 · B. Risa
26 · S. Kabini
17 · M. Daehli
28 · V. Bender
6 · N. Odegard
24 · T. Kone-Doherty
21 · O. Spiten-Nysaeter
43 · J. Fugelsnes
We make Molde a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 38% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lillestrom win | 34% | 37% | −3 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | −1 |
| Molde win | 42% | 38% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 70% | −9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 49% | −11 |
| Lillestrom or draw | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Lillestrom clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Molde clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021Form · last six in Eliteserien
LILLESTROM
MOLDE
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 22 | +36 | 53 |
| 2 | Viking | 22 | +36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | +11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | +12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | +9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | −1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | +5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | −7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | −5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | −10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 22 | −6 | 24 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | −9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | −15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | −13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | −21 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | −22 | 16 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Rosenborg
Brann
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
KFUM Oslo
Sandefjord
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
Aalesund
Kristiansund BK
Start