Lillestrom v Brann prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LillestromDrawBrann

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lillestrom 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Lillestrom just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lillestrom 38%, draw 24%, Brann 38%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Lillestrom v BrannBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lillestrom win38%

Draw24%

Brann win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueÅråsen Stadion

RefereeMohammad Usman Aslam

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lillestrom

Brann

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lillestrom winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market41%

Us38%

~~Market~~41%

We make Lillestrom a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lillestrom v Brann~~1.52 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 29~~6 v 7

~~The market · Lillestrom win~~41% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lillestrom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lillestrom win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Brann win	38%	34%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	65%	−7
Both teams to score	60%	67%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	45%	−9
Lillestrom or draw	62%	66%	−4
Lillestrom clean sheet	22%	–	–
Brann clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 7.3 5.6 2.8 1 7.3 11.0 8.2 4.2 2 5.6 8.3 6.2 3.1 3 2.8 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lillestrom down, Brann across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lillestrom at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Brann away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Lillestrom, 1.51 for Brann. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRA 1–2 LIL · BRA 2–1 LIL · LIL 0–2 BRA · LIL 0–2 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

LILLESTROM

LWWLDW1–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

BRANN

DLLWLL0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	23	+38	56
2	Viking	23	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Tromso	23	+11	40
5	Rosenborg	23	+12	37
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
9	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
10	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
11	Valerenga	23	−8	26
12	Ham-Kam	23	−15	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16