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Kristiansund BK v Aalesund

Kristiansund BK
1–4Full time
Aalesund

Eliteserien · SAT 17 OCT · Kristiansund Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Kristiansund BK 1–4 Aalesund KRISTIANSUND BK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kristiansund BK win46%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.740
The market’s Brier score0.619

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kristiansund BK win at 46%.
  2. 5′Little has changed for our model: Kristiansund BK 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
  3. 5′KICK-OFF Kristiansund BK v Aalesund
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: Kristiansund BK 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
  5. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Aalesund
  6. 28′We said Kristiansund BK at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–11
  7. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kristiansund BK 1–0 Aalesund
  8. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Kristiansund BK win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 29′Kristiansund BK ahead on 27′ through David Tufekcic. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–11
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–11
  11. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Kristiansund BK 1–1 Aalesund
  12. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Kristiansund BK win: 46% at kick-off, 40% now
  13. 39′Marcus Reed scores for Aalesund on 36′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–33–28
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Kristiansund BK 1–1 Aalesund
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Kristiansund BK 1–1 Aalesund
  16. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Kristiansund BK win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  17. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Kristiansund BK win 35%)
  18. 54′We said Kristiansund BK at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–25
  19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Aalesund · On: Endre Osenbroch · Off: Sander Erik Kartum
  20. 64′We said Kristiansund BK at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
  21. 66′We said Kristiansund BK at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–22–72
  22. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kristiansund BK 1–2 Aalesund
  23. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Kristiansund BK win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  24. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Aalesund win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
  25. 67′65′: Marcus Reed on the scoresheet for Aalesund, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–22–73
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kristiansund BK · On: Gustav Ørsøe Christensen · Off: Sander Svendsen
  27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aalesund · On: Jakob Nyland Örsahl · Off: Uba Charles Nwokoma
  28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aalesund · On: Paul Ngongo · Off: Marcus Reed
  29. 71′We said Kristiansund BK at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  30. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 69' David Tufekcic · Kristiansund BK
  31. 77′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  32. 77′Aalesund ahead on 76′ through Paul Ngongo. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  33. 77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kristiansund BK 1–3 Aalesund
  34. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Endre Osenbroch · Aalesund
  35. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Aalesund · On: Stefano Vecchia · Off: Isak Gabriel Skotheim
  36. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kristiansund BK · On: Max Normann Williamsen · Off: Wilfred George Igor
  37. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kristiansund BK · On: Adrian Kurd Rønning · Off: Julius Mar Juliusson Corrected
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kristiansund BK · On: John Kitolano · Off: Zymer Bytyqi Corrected
  39. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kristiansund BK 1–4 Aalesund · Mathias Christensen
  40. 90′Mathias Christensen scores for Aalesund on 88′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  41. 90′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  42. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' John Kitolano · Kristiansund BK
  43. FTFULL TIME Kristiansund BK 1–4 Aalesund
  44. FTKristiansund BK 1–4 Aalesund · Kristiansund BK win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kristiansund BK are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kristiansund BK 46%, draw 23%, Aalesund 31%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Kristiansund BK v AalesundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kristiansund BK win46%
Draw23%
Aalesund win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueKristiansund Stadion

RefereeMischa Kellerhals

Line-ups

Kristiansund BK

4-2-3-1

Aalesund

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kristiansund BK

Aalesund

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Aalesund22−1521
15Kristiansund BK22−2119

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kristiansund BK

4-2-3-1

1 M. Lansing

59 M. Elvius

4 J. Juliusson

5 D. Ulvestad

6 J. Isaksen

10 H. Bruseth

20 W. Igor

16 D. Tufekcic

7 S. Svendsen

11 Z. Bytyqi

19 L. Alvheim

Coach · Amund Skiri

Substitutes

12 · A. Saether

25 · J. Kitolano

22 · H. Haugen

17 · M. Williamsen

3 · F. Flex

23 · T. Svendsen

14 · S. Skeide

27 · A. Ronning

24 · G. Christensen

Aalesund

5-3-2

1 L. Podlech

7 K. Nesso

2 M. Andresen

28 D. Mbacke

3 O. Gudmundsson

14 U. Charles

21 M. Christensen

18 E. Hagen

19 S. Kartum

8 I. Skotheim

27 M. Reed

Coach · Kjetil-Andre Rekdal

Substitutes

26 · T. Larsen

16 · J. Orsahl

10 · M. Kristensen

22 · E. Engqvist

38 · T. Leikanger

23 · S. Vecchia

15 · E. Osenbroch

9 · P. Ngongo

17 · E. Myrlid

Our number · kristiansund bk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
46% The market39%
Us46%
Market39%

We make Kristiansund BK a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kristiansund BK v Aalesund1.77 – 1.41
Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 16 AugW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 19 v 2115 v 14
The market · Kristiansund BK win39% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 14:11
Our probability · Kristiansund BK win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kristiansund BK win46%39%+7
Draw23%25%−2
Aalesund win31%36%−5
Over 2.5 goals61%62%−1
Both teams to score62%65%−3
Over 1.5 goals82%82%0
Over 3.5 goals39%41%−2
Kristiansund BK or draw69%64%+5
Kristiansund BK clean sheet25%––
Aalesund clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%
0123450 4.5 5.9 4.2 2.0 1 7.3 10.4 7.2 3.4 2 6.5 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.8 5.3 3.7 4 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kristiansund BK down, Aalesund across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsAAL 1–1 KRI · KRI 4–0 AAL · AAL 1–0 KRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 16 Aug

KRISTIANSUND BK

LDWLLL0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–8 · 1–3 · 1–3

AALESUND

DLWLWL5–5 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Viking22+3653
2Bodo/Glimt22+3653
3Tromso22+1139
4Molde22+1237
5Rosenborg22+934
6Lillestrom22−133
7Brann22+529
8Fredrikstad22−729
9Sarpsborg 08 FF22−328
10KFUM Oslo22−928
11Ham-Kam22−1326
12Sandefjord22−624
13Valerenga22−1023
14Aalesund22−1521
15Kristiansund BK22−2119
16Start22−2416

The competition's standings before kick-off.