KFUM Oslo v Valerenga prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

KFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga KFUM OSLO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KFUM Oslo win~~47%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KFUM Oslo win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: KFUM Oslo was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–30
6′Much as we predicted: KFUM Oslo was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–30
27′Aaron Kiil Olsen scores for Valerenga on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
28′We said KFUM Oslo at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
31′Aaron Kiil Olsen scores for Valerenga on 26′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
32′31′ and it is 1–1: Bilal Njie on the scoresheet for KFUM Oslo. 1–1 · 41–31–28
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 39% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' KFUM Oslo win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Valerenga win 27%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Valerenga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was KFUM Oslo win 17%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Valerenga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was KFUM Oslo win 17%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Valerenga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was KFUM Oslo win 17%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Valerenga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was KFUM Oslo win 17%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' KFUM Oslo win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Valerenga win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was KFUM Oslo win 17%)
45′HALF-TIME KFUM Oslo 1–1 Valerenga
46′SECOND HALF KFUM Oslo 1–1 Valerenga
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Magnus Westergaard · Valerenga
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' KFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga · Bilal Njie
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' KFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga · Bjorn Martin Kristensen
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Ghayas Zahid · Valerenga
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Valerenga · On: Fidel Brice Ambina · Off: Magnus Westergaard
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Valerenga · On: Mathias Grundetjern · Off: Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Valerenga · On: Odin Thiago Holm · Off: Ghayas Zahid
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' KFUM Oslo · On: Rasmus Eggen Vinge · Off: Bilal Njie
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' KFUM Oslo · On: Magnus Grødem · Off: Bjorn Martin Kristensen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' KFUM Oslo · On: David Hickson Gyedu · Off: Ola Visted
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valerenga · On: Ivan Nasberg · Off: Aaron Kiil Olsen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Valerenga · On: Gabriel Rajkovic · Off: Ole Christian Hammerfjell Saeter
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' KFUM Oslo · On: Robin Rasch · Off: Amin Nouri
FTFULL TIME KFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga
FTKFUM Oslo 2–1 Valerenga · KFUM Oslo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

KFUM Oslo win47%

Draw24%

Valerenga win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueKFUM Arena

RefereeMarius Lien

Line-ups

KFUM Oslo

3-4-3

Valerenga

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

KFUM Oslo

Valerenga

24Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
13	Valerenga	21	−9	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

KFUM Oslo

3-4-3

1 E. Odegaard

24 H. Rosten

5 F. Berglie

2 D. Schneider

14 H. Hoseth

19 E. Saunes

9 M. Vinjor

16 J. Hjorth

11 O. Visted

22 B. Kristensen

10 B. Njie

Coach · Jorgen Isnes

Substitutes

25 · H. Jenssen

33 · A. Nouri

13 · B. Skaret

42 · D. Hickson

7 · R. Rasch

28 · M. Grodem

8 · B. Tobiassen

23 · M. Eikrem

18 · R. E. Vinge

Valerenga

4-4-2

1 O. Hedvall

3 H. Sjatil

4 A. Olsen

55 S. Jarl

26 D. Gjengaar

24 P. Strand

11 G. Zahid

28 M. Westergaard

10 C. Lange

77 L. Haren

90 O. Saeter

Coach · Johannes Moesgaard

Substitutes

13 · A. A. Lonning S.

2 · K. Finnsson

37 · I. Nasberg

29 · F. Ambina

15 · O. T. Holm

9 · G. Rajkovic

7 · H. Nielsen

19 · E. Rashani

17 · M. Grundetjern

Our number · kfum oslo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

47% The market32%

Us47%

~~Market~~32%

We make KFUM Oslo a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kfum oslo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KFUM Oslo win	47%	32%	+14
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Valerenga win	30%	42%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
KFUM Oslo or draw	70%	58%	+12
KFUM Oslo clean sheet	27%	–	–
Valerenga clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 6.3 4.2 1 8.1 10.9 7.1 3.2 2 7.0 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.0 5.2 3.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KFUM Oslo down, Valerenga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,383 Eliteserien matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.7% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KFUM Oslo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Valerenga away: 1.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for KFUM Oslo, 1.33 for Valerenga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VAL 2–2 KFU · VAL 1–1 KFU · KFU 0–1 VAL

Form · last six in Eliteserien

KFUM OSLO

WDLLWW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

VALERENGA

LDLDLD1–2 · 5–5 · 3–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
2	Viking	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	−7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	Ham-Kam	22	−13	26
11	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Valerenga	21	−9	23
14	Aalesund	22	−15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	22	−24	16