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Ham-Kam v Rosenborg

Ham-Kam
0–3Full time
Rosenborg

Eliteserien · SAT 24 OCT · Briskeby

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48
Ham-Kam 0–3 Rosenborg ROSENBORG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rosenborg win45%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.451
The market’s Brier score0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rosenborg win at 45%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Ham-Kam v Rosenborg
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Rosenborg 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 31–24–45
  4. 31′Rosenborg have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–30–41
  5. 38′8 shots for Rosenborg, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 29–32–39
  6. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Luc Mares · Ham-Kam
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Ham-Kam 0–0 Rosenborg
  8. 47′12 shots for Rosenborg, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 27–36–36
  9. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ham-Kam · On: Duarte Moreira · Off: Mohamed Ofkir
  10. 48′HALF-TIME Ham-Kam 0–0 Rosenborg
  11. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Rosenborg win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  12. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rosenborg win 37%)
  13. 55′We said Rosenborg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 25–41–33
  14. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–41–33
  15. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Noah Sahsah · Rosenborg
  16. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Leopold Wahlstedt · Rosenborg
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rosenborg · On: Jesper Reitan Sunde · Off: Noah Sahsah
  18. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Patrick Metcalfe · Ham-Kam
  19. 64′We said Rosenborg at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
  20. 68′We said Rosenborg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  21. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Ham-Kam 0–1 Rosenborg
  22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Rosenborg win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
  23. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Rosenborg win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 53%)
  24. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ham-Kam · On: Danilo Al-Saed · Off: David Benjamin
  25. 71′Rosenborg ahead on 69′ through an own goal by Luc Mares. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–16–81
  26. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rosenborg · On: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo · Off: Jonas Svensson
  27. 74′We said Rosenborg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  28. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Ham-Kam 0–2 Rosenborg
  29. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Rosenborg win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
  30. 75′Amin Chiakha scores for Rosenborg on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
  31. 77′Amin Chiakha scores for Rosenborg on 74′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  32. 84′We said Rosenborg at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  33. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ham-Kam · On: João Paulo Rodrigues Barros · Off: Aleksander Andresen
  34. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ham-Kam · On: Loris Mettler · Off: Luc Mares
  35. 89′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  36. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Ham-Kam 0–3 Rosenborg
  37. 90′89′: Emil Konradsen Ceide on the scoresheet for Rosenborg, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  38. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Rosenborg · On: Dino Islamović · Off: Amin Chiakha
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Rosenborg · On: Maciej Soboczynski · Off: Emil Konradsen Ceide
  40. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Snorre Strand Nilsen · Ham-Kam
  41. 94′0–3 at the end. Our 45% on Rosenborg comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  42. FTFULL TIME Ham-Kam 0–3 Rosenborg
  43. FTHam-Kam 0–3 Rosenborg · Rosenborg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosenborg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ham-Kam 31%, draw 23%, Rosenborg 45%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ham-Kam v RosenborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ham-Kam win31%
Draw23%
Rosenborg win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBriskeby

RefereeStian Rovig Sletner

Line-ups

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

Rosenborg

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ham-Kam

Rosenborg

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Rosenborg23+1237
12Ham-Kam23−1526

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

12 M. Sandberg

22 S. Nilsen

2 M. Gjone

23 F. Sjølstad

3 E. Amundsen-Day

5 A. Andresen

11 M. Ofkir

14 L. Mares

26 P. Metcalfe

17 A. Potur

28 David Benjamin

Coach · T. Myhre

Substitutes

24 · D. Al-Saed

27 · João Barros

29 · B. Isufi

10 · L. Mettler

18 · Duarte Moreira

4 · H. Opsahl

6 · W. Osnes-Ringen

33 · Elias Simon Rusen

16 · A. Trondsen

Rosenborg

4-4-2

1 L. Wahlstedt

16 A. Witry

4 M. Ceïde

21 T. Nemčík

19 A. Pereira

11 N. Sahsah

17 M. Bomholt

10 O. Selnæs

22 J. Svensson

18 Amin Chiakha

35 E. Ceïde

Coach · Freyr Alexandersson

Substitutes

12 · R. Sandberg

14 · J. Reitan-Sunde

30 · M. Soboczynski

15 · J. Mortensen

23 · M. Mampassi

6 · M. Kjølø

9 · D. Islamović

8 · I. Fossum

3 · T. Solheim

Our number · rosenborg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off
45% The market62%
Us45%
Market62%

We make Rosenborg a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ham-Kam v Rosenborg1.42 – 1.75
Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L4 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 26 v 3712 v 5
The market · Rosenborg win62% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 16:07
Our probability · Rosenborg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ham-Kam win31%18%+13
Draw23%21%+2
Rosenborg win45%62%−17
Over 2.5 goals61%64%−3
Both teams to score62%60%+2
Over 1.5 goals82%84%−2
Over 3.5 goals39%44%−5
Ham-Kam or draw55%38%+17
Ham-Kam clean sheet18%––
Rosenborg clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%
0123450 4.5 7.3 6.5 3.8 1 5.9 10.5 8.9 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.3 6.3 3.7 3 2.0 3.5 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ham-Kam down, Rosenborg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.78
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored2 of 9
Last meetingsROS 4–0 HAM · HAM 4–0 ROS · ROS 2–0 HAM · HAM 0–2 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

HAM-KAM

DLLLWL2–2 · 0–4 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 0–2

ROSENBORG

LWWWDW2–4 · 4–0 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bodo/Glimt23+3856
2Viking23+3756
3Molde23+1740
4Tromso23+1140
5Rosenborg23+1237
6Lillestrom23+136
7Brann23+329
8Fredrikstad23−829
9KFUM Oslo23−929
10Sarpsborg 08 FF23−628
11Valerenga23−826
12Ham-Kam23−1526
13Sandefjord23−824
14Aalesund23−1224
15Kristiansund BK23−2419
16Start23−2916

The competition's standings before kick-off.