Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Ham-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt BODO/GLIMT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bodo/Glimt win~~65%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bodo/Glimt win at 65%.
2′Much as we predicted: Bodo/Glimt was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 17–18–65
2′KICK-OFF Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Bodo/Glimt
21′We published Bodo/Glimt at 65%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
21′19′: Ole Didrik Blomberg on the scoresheet for Bodo/Glimt, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Ham-Kam 0–1 Bodo/Glimt
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Bodo/Glimt win: 65% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 5–12–82
32′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Aksel Baran Potur · Ham-Kam
39′We published Bodo/Glimt at 65%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Ham-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Bodo/Glimt win: 65% at kick-off, 95% now
41′Bodo/Glimt ahead on 38′ through Joel Mvuka. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
45′HALF-TIME Ham-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt
45′SECOND HALF Ham-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bodo/Glimt · On: Fredrik Bjorkan · Off: Ole Didrik Blomberg
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ham-Kam · On: Mohamed Ofkir · Off: David Benjamin
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bodo/Glimt · On: Jens Petter Hauge · Off: Joel Mvuka
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bodo/Glimt · On: Haitam Aleesami · Off: Odin Luras Bjortuft
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ham-Kam · On: Ethan Amundsen-Day · Off: João Paulo Rodrigues Barros
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Ham-Kam · On: Danilo Al-Saed · Off: Ethan Amundsen-Day Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ham-Kam · On: Danilo Al-Saed · Off: Loris Mettler
81′We published Bodo/Glimt at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bodo/Glimt · On: Andreas Helmersen · Off: Ola Brynhildsen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bodo/Glimt · On: Sondre Fet · Off: Sondre Auklend
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ham-Kam · On: Duarte Moreira · Off: Aksel Baran Potur
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ham-Kam · On: Anders Trondsen · Off: Fredrik Sjolstad
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Bodo/Glimt at 65% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ham-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt
FTHam-Kam 0–2 Bodo/Glimt · Bodo/Glimt win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bodo/Glimt are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ham-Kam 17%, draw 18%, Bodo/Glimt 65%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ham-Kam v Bodo/GlimtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ham-Kam win17%

Draw18%

Bodo/Glimt win65%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

VenueBriskeby

RefereeJorgen Haugen

Line-ups

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ham-Kam

Bodo/Glimt

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
11	Ham-Kam	22	−13	26

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Bodo/Glimt impress in win over DortmundBBC Sport · 14 Oct 22:28 · Bodo/Glimt, Borussia Dortmund

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ham-Kam

5-3-2

12 M. Sandberg

22 S. Nilsen

2 M. Gjone

23 F. Sjolstad

27 J. Barros

5 A. Andresen

10 L. Mettler

14 L. Mares

26 P. Metcalfe

17 A. Potur

28 D. Benjamin

Coach · Thomas Myhre

Substitutes

13 · S. Ostraat

3 · E. Amundsen-Day

7 · V. Jonsson

16 · A. Trondsen

6 · W. Osnes-Ringen

11 · M. Ofkir

18 · D. Moreira

19 · H. Udahl

24 · D. Al Saed

Bodo/Glimt

4-4-2

12 N. Haikin

20 F. Sjovold

2 V. Nielsen

4 O. L. Bjortuft

25 I. Maatta

22 J. Mvuka Mugisha

8 S. Auklend

7 P. Berg

14 U. Saltnes

17 O. Brynhildsen

11 O. Blomberg

Coach · Kjetil Knutsen

Substitutes

1 · J. Lund

15 · F. Bjorkan

5 · H. Aleesami

6 · J. Gundersen

19 · S. Fet

16 · J. Kitolano

28 · A. Sanyang

10 · J. Hauge

21 · A. Helmersen

Our number · bodo/glimt winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

65% The market77%

Us65%

~~Market~~77%

We make Bodo/Glimt a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ham-Kam v Bodo/Glimt~~1.16 – 2.44

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 53~~11 v 2

~~The market · Bodo/Glimt win~~77% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bodo/Glimt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ham-Kam win	17%	9%	+8
Draw	18%	14%	+4
Bodo/Glimt win	65%	77%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	55%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Ham-Kam or draw	35%	23%	+12
Ham-Kam clean sheet	9%	–	–
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.0 6.7 8.1 6.6 4.1 2.01 3.2 7.8 9.2 7.4 4.6 2.32 4.5 5.3 4.3 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ham-Kam down, Bodo/Glimt across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,384 Eliteserien matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ham-Kam at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.16 goals for Ham-Kam, 2.44 for Bodo/Glimt. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOD 3–0 HAM · HAM 1–3 BOD · BOD 3–0 HAM · BOD 3–0 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 8 Aug

HAM-KAM

LDLLLW0–3 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 4–2

BODO/GLIMT

WWWWLW2–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	22	+36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	22	+11	39
4	Molde	22	+12	37
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	22	−1	33
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	22	−7	29
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	22	−3	28
10	KFUM Oslo	22	−9	28
11	Ham-Kam	22	−13	26
12	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
13	Valerenga	22	−10	23
14	Aalesund	22	−15	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	22	−24	16