Fredrikstad v Tromso prediction · Eliteserien

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Fredrikstad 1–1 Tromso FREDRIKSTAD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Fredrikstad win~~37%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.785

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fredrikstad win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fredrikstad 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF Fredrikstad v Tromso
2′Little has changed for our model: Fredrikstad 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Fredrikstad
25′We said Fredrikstad at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–22–66
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Fredrikstad 0–1 Tromso
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Bryan Fiabema · Fredrikstad
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Fredrikstad win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Tromso win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Fredrikstad win 13%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Fredrikstad win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
27′We said Fredrikstad at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–66
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Fredrikstad win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Fredrikstad win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Fredrikstad 0–1 Tromso · Troy Engseth Nyhammer
29′Tromso ahead on 26′ through Troy Engseth Nyhammer. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–66
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Vetle Skjaervik · Tromso
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
33′Tromso ahead on 26′ through Troy Engseth Nyhammer. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–67
42′We said Fredrikstad at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
45′SECOND HALF Fredrikstad 0–1 Tromso
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Fredrikstad win: 37% at kick-off, 8% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Tromso win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Fredrikstad win 8%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Morten Bjorlo · Tromso
50′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Tromso
51′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Leon Hien · Tromso
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Tromso · On: Vince Osuji · Off: Troy Engseth Nyhammer
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Fredrikstad · On: Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez · Off: Ulrik Tillung Fredriksen
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Fredrikstad 1–1 Tromso · Troy Engseth Nyhammer
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Fredrikstad 1–1 Tromso · Fredrik Holme
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tromso · On: Lars Olden Larsen · Off: Morten Bjorlo
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Tromso · On: Vegard Erlien · Off: Heine Asen Larsen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fredrikstad · On: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas · Off: Liam West
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Fredrikstad · On: Gabriel Wesseh · Off: Henrik Langaas Skogvold
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ruben Jenssen · Tromso
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fredrikstad · On: Simen Rafn · Off: Solomon Owusu
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Tromso · On: Jesper Andreas Grundt · Off: David Edvardsson
FTFULL TIME Fredrikstad 1–1 Tromso
FTFredrikstad 1–1 Tromso · Fredrikstad win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fredrikstad win37%

Draw27%

Tromso win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueFredrikstad Stadion

RefereeOla Hobber Nilsen

Line-ups

Fredrikstad

3-4-3

Tromso

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fredrikstad

Tromso

21Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fredrikstad

3-4-3

77 M. Borsheim

12 U. Fredriksen

4 F. Holme

28 S. Owusu

16 D. Eid

6 S. Leach

14 M. Nilsson

13 S. Sorlokk

11 L. West

23 H. Skogvold

18 B. Fiabema

Coach · Casper Rojkjaer

Substitutes

30 · J. Torkildsen

5 · S. Rafn

27 · C. Pondy

24 · L. Owusu

21 · J. Jezierski

7 · B. Faraas

9 · S. Laghzaoui

29 · G. Wesseh

10 · J. Nunez

Tromso

5-3-2

1 J. Haugaard

37 S. Innvaer

4 V. Skjaervik

21 L. Hien

30 I. Vadebu

29 A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd

5 D. Edvardsson

11 R. Jenssen

70 M. Bjorlo

10 T. Nyhammer

22 H. Larsen

Coach · Jorgen Vik

Substitutes

12 · O. Lauvli

33 · M. Jatta

27 · M. Mikkelsen

24 · V. Osuji

8 · J. Grundt

7 · L. O. Larsen

17 · I. Dahlqvist

9 · D. Braut

15 · V. Erlien

Our number · fredrikstad winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

37% The market34%

Us37%

~~Market~~34%

We make Fredrikstad a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fredrikstad win	37%	34%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Tromso win	36%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	31%	−4
Fredrikstad or draw	64%	61%	+3
Fredrikstad clean sheet	28%	–	–
Tromso clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.8 9.5 6.2 2.7 1 9.7 12.5 7.9 3.4 2 6.4 8.1 5.2 2.2 3 2.8 3.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fredrikstad down, Tromso across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,379 Eliteserien matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fredrikstad at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tromso away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Fredrikstad, 1.28 for Tromso. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~0 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TRO 4–0 FRE · TRO 0–0 FRE · FRE 0–1 TRO · TRO 3–0 FRE

Form · last six in Eliteserien

FREDRIKSTAD

WWWLDD1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

TROMSO

WLDLLW6–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–5 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
2	Viking	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	21	−22	16