Fredrikstad v Rosenborg prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FredrikstadDrawRosenborg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rosenborg 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rosenborg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fredrikstad 34%, draw 25%, Rosenborg 40%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Fredrikstad v RosenborgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fredrikstad win34%

Draw25%

Rosenborg win40%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueFredrikstad Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fredrikstad

Rosenborg

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 24 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rosenborg winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Rosenborg a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fredrikstad v Rosenborg~~1.30 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 29 v 40~~9 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fredrikstad win	34%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Rosenborg win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Fredrikstad or draw	60%	–	–
Fredrikstad clean sheet	24%	–	–
Rosenborg clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 9.2 6.7 3.2 1 8.3 12.0 8.5 4.1 2 5.5 7.7 5.6 2.7 3 2.4 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fredrikstad down, Rosenborg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fredrikstad at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rosenborg away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Fredrikstad, 1.45 for Rosenborg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ROS 4–0 FRE · FRE 0–2 ROS · ROS 1–0 FRE · FRE 2–2 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

FREDRIKSTAD

WLDDDL4–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

ROSENBORG

WWWDWW4–0 · 5–3 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16