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Brann v Viking

Brann

0–2Full time

Viking

Eliteserien · FRI 9 OCT · Brann Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Brann 0–2 Viking VIKING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viking win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.517

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.389

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viking win at 42%.
27′Viking ahead on 20′ through Peter Christiansen. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–86
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Viking win: 42% at kick-off, 86% now
30′We published Viking at 42%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–2 · 4–9–87
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Kristoffer Askildsen · Viking
39′🟥 RED CARD · 39' Viking
39′🟥 RED CARD · 39' Kristoffer Askildsen · Viking
40′A red card for Viking on 39′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 3–8–89
42′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–2 · 3–8–89
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Jonas Tviberg Torsvik · Brann
45′SECOND HALF Brann 0–2 Viking
45′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Eggert Aron Gudmundsson · Brann
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Eggert Aron Gudmundsson · Brann
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Brann · On: Julian Laegreid · Off: Jonas Tviberg Torsvik
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Viking · On: Simen Kvia Egeskog · Off: Zlatko Tripić
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Viking · On: Jesper Daland · Off: Erik Botheim
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Brann · On: Bård Finne · Off: Noah Jean Holm
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Viking · On: Jakob Segadal Hansen · Off: Henrik Bjørdal
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Viking · On: Tobias Moi · Off: Peter Christiansen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Brann · On: Niklas Wassberg · Off: Kristian Eriksen
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Morten Jensen · Viking
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Viking · On: Herman Haugen · Off: Henrik Heggheim
FTFULL TIME Brann 0–2 Viking
FTBrann 0–2 Viking · Viking win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brann win36%

Draw22%

Viking win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Brann Stadion

Referee · Tore Hansen

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Brann

4-3-3

12 S. Nilsen

23 T. Pedersen

3 F. Knudsen

21 N. Kasanwirjo

20 V. Dragsnes

16 K. Eriksen

18 J. Sorensen

19 E. Gudmundsson

22 S. Magnusson

29 N. Holm

15 J. Torsvik

Coach · Eirik Horneland

Substitutes

1 · M. Dyngeland

17 · J. Soltvedt

41 · A. Wilhelmsen

25 · N. Wassberg

43 · B. Haugen

11 · B. Finne

7 · K. Kjartansson

39 · J. Laegreid

Viking

4-4-2

1 A. Ostbo

5 H. Heggheim

6 G. Stensness

25 H. Falchener

28 K. Haugen

16 H. Bjordal

8 J. Bell

7 K. Askildsen

10 Z. Tripic

20 P. Christiansen

22 E. Botheim

Coach · Bjarte Aarsheim

Substitutes

30 · L. Belko

2 · H. J. Haugen

24 · V. Auklend

27 · J. Daland

29 · T. Moi

33 · J. Hansen

26 · S. Kvia-Egeskog

23 · N. Fuglestad

11 · R. Postema

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Brann

4-3-3

12 S. Nilsen

23 T. Pedersen

3 F. Knudsen

21 N. Kasanwirjo

20 V. Dragsnes

16 K. Eriksen

18 J. Sorensen

19 E. Gudmundsson

22 S. Magnusson

29 N. Holm

15 J. Torsvik

Coach · Eirik Horneland

Substitutes

1 · M. Dyngeland

17 · J. Soltvedt

41 · A. Wilhelmsen

25 · N. Wassberg

43 · B. Haugen

11 · B. Finne

7 · K. Kjartansson

39 · J. Laegreid

Viking

4-4-2

1 A. Ostbo

5 H. Heggheim

6 G. Stensness

25 H. Falchener

28 K. Haugen

16 H. Bjordal

8 J. Bell

7 K. Askildsen

10 Z. Tripic

20 P. Christiansen

22 E. Botheim

Coach · Bjarte Aarsheim

Substitutes

30 · L. Belko

2 · H. J. Haugen

24 · V. Auklend

27 · J. Daland

29 · T. Moi

33 · J. Hansen

26 · S. Kvia-Egeskog

23 · N. Fuglestad

11 · R. Postema

Our number · viking winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Viking a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · viking win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brann win	36%	28%	+8
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Viking win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	67%	69%	−1
Both teams to score	67%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	86%	0
Over 3.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Brann or draw	58%	51%	+7
Brann clean sheet	17%	–	–
Viking clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.3 5.6 5.1 3.1 1 5.2 9.3 8.3 5.0 2.3 2 4.3 7.6 6.8 4.1 3 2.4 4.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brann down, Viking across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,376 Eliteserien matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.11 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brann at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Viking away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Brann, 1.82 for Viking. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VIK 3–2 BRA · VIK 3–0 BRA · BRA 3–1 VIK · BRA 1–1 VIK

Form · last six in Eliteserien

BRANN

WWDLLW3–2 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

VIKING

WLWDWW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 8–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	21	+34	50
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	+34	50
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	21	+9	33
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	21	+7	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	21	−6	23
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	−19	19
16	Start	21	−22	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Brann

Viking

Match statistics

Line-ups

Brann

Viking

Head to head

Form · last six in Eliteserien

The table