Bodo/Glimt v Viking prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bodo/GlimtDrawViking

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bodo/Glimt 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bodo/Glimt are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bodo/Glimt 55%, draw 20%, Viking 25%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Bodo/Glimt v VikingBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Bodo/Glimt win55%

Draw20%

Viking win25%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueAspmyra Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bodo/Glimt

Viking

6Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bodo/glimt winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:22 · locked at kick-off

55% The market58%

Us55%

~~Market~~58%

We make Bodo/Glimt a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bodo/Glimt v Viking~~2.22 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 56 v 56~~2 v 1

~~The market · Bodo/Glimt win~~58% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bodo/Glimt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bodo/Glimt win	55%	58%	−3
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Viking win	25%	21%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Bodo/Glimt or draw	75%	79%	−4
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	24%	–	–
Viking clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.8 3.8 2.7 1 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.8 2 6.4 9.0 6.4 3.0 3 4.7 6.6 4.7 2.2 4 2.6 3.7 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bodo/Glimt down, Viking across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bodo/Glimt at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Viking away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Bodo/Glimt, 1.43 for Viking. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIK 5–0 BOD · VIK 2–4 BOD · BOD 2–4 VIK · VIK 1–1 BOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

BODO/GLIMT

WWLWWL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

VIKING

WDWWWW2–1 · 1–1 · 8–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16