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Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK

Bodo/Glimt

3–1Full time

Kristiansund BK

Eliteserien · SAT 10 OCT · Aspmyra Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK BODO/GLIMT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bodo/Glimt win~~84%

~~The market said~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.038

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.021

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bodo/Glimt win at 84%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Bodo/Glimt 84% before kick-off, 84% now. 0–0 · 84–10–5
2′KICK-OFF Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' Bodo/Glimt 0–0 Kristiansund BK
24′Jesper Isaksen scores for Bodo/Glimt on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–5–1
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Kristiansund BK · Jesper Isaksen
37′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sondre Auklend · Bodo/Glimt
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Bodo/Glimt win: 84% at kick-off, 73% now
40′We said Bodo/Glimt at 84%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 72%. 0–0 · 72–21–8
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Kristiansund BK
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Bodo/Glimt win: 84% at kick-off, 92% now
45′Ola Brynhildsen scores for Bodo/Glimt on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–1
47′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Kristiansund BK · Ola Brynhildsen
47′SECOND HALF Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Kristiansund BK
58′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Sondre Auklend · Bodo/Glimt
58′⚽ GOAL · 44' Bodo/Glimt 1–0 Kristiansund BK · Ola Brynhildsen (assist Ole Didrik Blomberg)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bodo/Glimt · On: Haitam Aleesami · Off: Jostein Gundersen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bodo/Glimt · On: Joel Mvuka · Off: Ole Didrik Blomberg
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Kristiansund BK · Ola Brynhildsen
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Bodo/Glimt 1–1 Kristiansund BK · Leander Alvheim
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kristiansund BK · On: Syver Skeide · Off: Tobias Hammer Svendsen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kristiansund BK · On: Frederik Flex · Off: Gustav Ørsøe Christensen
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' David Tufekcic · Kristiansund BK
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Kristiansund BK · Leander Alvheim
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Kristiansund BK · Frederik Flex
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bodo/Glimt · On: Andreas Helmersen · Off: Ola Brynhildsen
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Bodo/Glimt · On: Isak Dybvik Maatta · Off: Fredrik Bjorkan
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK · Frederik Flex
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK · Frederik Flex
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK · Andreas Helmersen
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bodo/Glimt · On: Ulrik Saltnes · Off: Patrick Berg
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kristiansund BK · On: Adrian Kurd Rønning · Off: Leander Alvheim
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kristiansund BK · On: Haakon Haugen · Off: Jesper Isaksen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kristiansund BK · On: Max Normann Williamsen · Off: Julius Mar Juliusson
FTFULL TIME Bodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK
FTBodo/Glimt 3–1 Kristiansund BK · Bodo/Glimt win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bodo/Glimt win84%

Draw10%

Kristiansund BK win6%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Aspmyra Stadion

Referee · Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt

4-1-3-2

12 N. Haikin

20 F. Sjovold

4 O. L. Bjortuft

6 J. Gundersen

15 F. Bjorkan

7 P. Berg

8 S. Auklend

19 S. Fet

10 J. Hauge

11 O. Blomberg

17 O. Brynhildsen

Coach · Kjetil Knutsen

Substitutes

1 · J. Lund

5 · H. Aleesami

2 · V. Nielsen

14 · U. Saltnes

25 · I. Maatta

22 · J. Mvuka Mugisha

32 · K. Solhaug

28 · A. Sanyang

21 · A. Helmersen

Kristiansund BK

5-4-1

1 M. Lansing

59 M. Elvius

4 J. Juliusson

5 D. Ulvestad

6 J. Isaksen

24 G. Christensen

10 H. Bruseth

16 D. Tufekcic

20 W. Igor

23 T. Svendsen

19 L. Alvheim

Coach · Amund Skiri

Substitutes

12 · A. Saether

25 · J. Kitolano

22 · H. Haugen

17 · M. Williamsen

3 · F. Flex

14 · S. Skeide

8 · E. Isufi

27 · A. Ronning

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bodo/Glimt

4-1-3-2

12 N. Haikin

20 F. Sjovold

4 O. L. Bjortuft

6 J. Gundersen

15 F. Bjorkan

7 P. Berg

8 S. Auklend

19 S. Fet

10 J. Hauge

11 O. Blomberg

17 O. Brynhildsen

Coach · Kjetil Knutsen

Substitutes

1 · J. Lund

5 · H. Aleesami

2 · V. Nielsen

14 · U. Saltnes

25 · I. Maatta

22 · J. Mvuka Mugisha

32 · K. Solhaug

28 · A. Sanyang

21 · A. Helmersen

Kristiansund BK

5-4-1

1 M. Lansing

59 M. Elvius

4 J. Juliusson

5 D. Ulvestad

6 J. Isaksen

24 G. Christensen

10 H. Bruseth

16 D. Tufekcic

20 W. Igor

23 T. Svendsen

19 L. Alvheim

Coach · Amund Skiri

Substitutes

12 · A. Saether

25 · J. Kitolano

22 · H. Haugen

17 · M. Williamsen

3 · F. Flex

14 · S. Skeide

8 · E. Isufi

27 · A. Ronning

Our number · bodo/glimt winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

84% The market88%

Us84%

~~Market~~88%

We make Bodo/Glimt a 84% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bodo/Glimt win	84%	88%	−4
Draw	10%	8%	+3
Kristiansund BK win	6%	4%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	76%	83%	−8
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	90%	93%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	56%	68%	−11
Bodo/Glimt or draw	94%	96%	−1
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	47%	–	–
Kristiansund BK clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.2%

0123450 1 6.1 4.6 2 9.6 7.2 2.7 3 10.2 7.6 2.9 4 8.3 6.1 2.3 5 5.5 4.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Bodo/Glimt down, Kristiansund BK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,377 Eliteserien matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.89 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kristiansund BK away: 0.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.26 goals for Bodo/Glimt, 0.75 for Kristiansund BK. Most likely score 3–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.89

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KRI 0–3 BOD · BOD 7–1 KRI · KRI 1–1 BOD · BOD 4–0 KRI

Form · last six in Eliteserien

BODO/GLIMT

WWWWWL4–0 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

KRISTIANSUND BK

WLDWLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–8 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	22	+36	53
2	Bodo/Glimt	21	+34	50
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	21	+9	33
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	21	−6	23
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	21	−19	19
16	Start	21	−22	16