Home › Football › Eliteserien › Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund v Sarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund

2–4Full time

Sarpsborg 08 FF

Eliteserien · SUN 11 OCT · Color Line Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF SARPSBORG 08 FF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarpsborg 08 FF win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.638

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarpsborg 08 FF win at 39%.
2′Much as we predicted: Sarpsborg 08 FF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–23–39
3′Much as we predicted: Sarpsborg 08 FF was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 38–24–39
8′Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead on 5′ through Eirik Wichne. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–20–63
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Bjorn Utvik · Sarpsborg 08 FF
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
11′We published Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%. Our model now makes it 63%. 0–1 · 17–20–63
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
12′Sarpsborg 08 FF ahead on 5′ through Eirik Wichne. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–20–63
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
14′We published Sarpsborg 08 FF at 39%. Our model now makes it 63%. 0–1 · 17–20–63
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Sarpsborg 08 FF win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Sigurd Rosted · Sarpsborg 08 FF
45′HALF-TIME Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
46′SECOND HALF Aalesund 0–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Aalesund 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Eirik Wichne
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Aalesund 0–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Sondre Sorlie
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Aalesund 0–3 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Sondre Sorlie
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Aalesund 0–3 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Noa Williams
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Aalesund · On: Elias Heggland Myrlid · Off: Isak Gabriel Skotheim
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Aalesund · On: Sander Erik Kartum · Off: Endre Osenbroch
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Aalesund 0–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Noa Williams
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Aalesund 0–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Olaus Jair Skarsem
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aalesund · On: Philip Sandvik Aukland · Off: Mbacke Diop
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Aalesund 1–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Olaus Jair Skarsem
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Aalesund 1–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Marius Lode · Off: Sigurd Rosted
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Aimar Sher · Off: Olaus Jair Skarsem
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Victor Emanuel Halvorsen · Off: Andreas Hansen
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Elias Kristoffersen Hagen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Anders Hiim · Off: Eirik Wichne
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sarpsborg 08 FF · On: Claus Babo Niyukuri · Off: Noa Williams
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Ólafur Gudmundsson · Aalesund
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Aalesund · On: Paul Ngongo · Off: Marcus Reed
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Aalesund · On: Jakob Nyland Örsahl · Off: Philip Sandvik Aukland
FTFULL TIME Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF
FTAalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08 FF · Sarpsborg 08 FF win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aalesund win38%

Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueColor Line Stadion

RefereeSvein Tore Sinnes

Line-ups

Aalesund

5-3-2

Sarpsborg 08 FF

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aalesund

Sarpsborg 08 FF

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aalesund

5-3-2

1 L. Podlech

7 K. Nesso

22 E. Engqvist

28 D. Mbacke

3 O. Gudmundsson

14 U. Charles

21 M. Christensen

18 E. Hagen

15 E. Osenbroch

8 I. Skotheim

27 M. Reed

Coach · Kjetil-Andre Rekdal

Substitutes

26 · T. Larsen

45 · P. Aukland

25 · U. Syversen

16 · J. Orsahl

10 · M. Kristensen

19 · S. Kartum

38 · T. Leikanger

9 · P. Ngongo

17 · E. Myrlid

Sarpsborg 08 FF

4-4-2

87 L. Oy

32 E. Wichne

4 B. Utvik

24 S. Rosted

20 P. Reinhardsen

10 S. Sorli

8 S. Christiansen

77 O. Skarsem

17 N. Williams

33 A. Nibe

11 D. Karlsbakk

Coach · Even Sel

Substitutes

1 · J. Larsen

21 · A. Hiim

2 · M. Lode

12 · C. Niyukuri

5 · L. Hoyland

22 · V. E. Halvorsen

6 · A. Sher

18 · B. Gueye

7 · Camil Mmaee

Our number · sarpsborg 08 ff winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Sarpsborg 08 FF a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sarpsborg 08 ff win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aalesund win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Sarpsborg 08 FF win	39%	35%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Aalesund or draw	61%	65%	−4
Aalesund clean sheet	20%	–	–
Sarpsborg 08 FF clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.0 6.2 5.2 2.9 1 6.1 10.1 8.2 4.5 2 5.0 8.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.8 4.4 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aalesund down, Sarpsborg 08 FF across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,379 Eliteserien matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 171 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aalesund at home: 2.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Aalesund, 1.65 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AAL 3–2 SAR · SAR 3–1 AAL · AAL 1–3 SAR · SAR 1–2 AAL

Form · last six in Eliteserien

AALESUND

DDLWLW1–1 · 5–5 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

SARPSBORG 08 FF

LLDDDL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bodo/Glimt	22	+36	53
2	Viking	22	+36	53
3	Tromso	21	+11	38
4	Molde	21	+12	36
5	Rosenborg	22	+9	34
6	Lillestrom	21	−1	32
7	Brann	22	+5	29
8	Fredrikstad	21	−7	28
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	21	−5	25
10	KFUM Oslo	21	−10	25
11	Sandefjord	22	−6	24
12	Valerenga	21	−9	23
13	Ham-Kam	21	−15	23
14	Aalesund	21	−13	21
15	Kristiansund BK	22	−21	19
16	Start	21	−22	16