Aalesund v Sandefjord prediction · Eliteserien

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AalesundDrawSandefjord

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sandefjord 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sandefjord just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aalesund 38%, draw 23%, Sandefjord 39%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Aalesund v SandefjordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Aalesund win38%

Draw23%

Sandefjord win39%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueColor Line Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aalesund

Sandefjord

14Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · Eliteserien

Last match: 18 Oct · Eliteserien

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sandefjord winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Sandefjord a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aalesund v Sandefjord~~1.56 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 24~~14 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aalesund win	38%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Sandefjord win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Aalesund or draw	61%	–	–
Aalesund clean sheet	21%	–	–
Sandefjord clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.8 5.5 2.9 1 6.7 10.5 8.3 4.4 2 5.2 8.1 6.4 3.4 3 2.7 4.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aalesund down, Sandefjord across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,394 Eliteserien matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eliteserien matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.8% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aalesund at home: 2.33 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sandefjord away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Aalesund, 1.60 for Sandefjord. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 AAL · AAL 0–3 SAN · SAN 4–0 AAL · AAL 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eliteserien this season · since 30 Aug

AALESUND

LWLWLW1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 4–1

SANDEFJORD

DDLWDL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Viking	23	+37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	+37	56
3	Molde	23	+17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	+15	40
5	Tromso	23	+11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	+1	36
7	Brann	23	+3	29
8	Valerenga	24	−7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	−8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	−9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	−6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	−18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	−8	24
14	Aalesund	23	−12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	−24	19
16	Start	23	−29	16