Sarpsborg 08 II v Raelingen prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Sarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen SARPSBORG 08 II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarpsborg 08 II win~~58%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.077

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.171

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarpsborg 08 II win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Sarpsborg 08 II v Raelingen
2′Little has changed for our model: Sarpsborg 08 II 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–24
6′Little has changed for our model: Sarpsborg 08 II 58% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
33′A goal for Raelingen on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–24–48
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sarpsborg 08 II 0–1 Raelingen
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sarpsborg 08 II win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Raelingen win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Sarpsborg 08 II win 28%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Sarpsborg 08 II win: 58% at kick-off, 52% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Sarpsborg 08 II win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Raelingen win 24%)
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Sarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen
35′34′ and it is 1–1: Sarpsborg 08 II have scored. 1–1 · 51–25–24
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sarpsborg 08 II win: 58% at kick-off, 52% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Sarpsborg 08 II win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Raelingen win 24%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Sarpsborg 08 II win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Raelingen win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Sarpsborg 08 II win 28%)
37′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 1–1 · 51–25–24
45′HALF-TIME Sarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen
46′SECOND HALF Sarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen
FTFULL TIME Sarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen
FTSarpsborg 08 II 1–1 Raelingen · Sarpsborg 08 II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 II win58%

Draw18%

Raelingen win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sarpsborg 08 II

Raelingen

9Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarpsborg 08 ii winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

58% The market67%

Us58%

~~Market~~67%

We make Sarpsborg 08 II a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sarpsborg 08 ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarpsborg 08 II win	58%	67%	−9
Draw	18%	17%	+1
Raelingen win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Both teams to score	74%	73%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	92%	91%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Sarpsborg 08 II or draw	76%	84%	−8
Sarpsborg 08 II clean sheet	19%	–	–
Raelingen clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.5 1 3.8 5.8 4.9 2.8 2 4.7 7.6 6.3 3.5 3 4.1 6.6 5.5 3.1 4 2.7 4.4 3.6 2.0 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarpsborg 08 II down, Raelingen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 158 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarpsborg 08 II at home: 4.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Raelingen away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.65 goals for Sarpsborg 08 II, 1.68 for Raelingen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAE 2–2 SAR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6

SARPSBORG 08 II

WWWDWL3–2 · 4–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–4

RAELINGEN

WLDLWL1–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
4	Råde	22	+30	40
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Lyn II	22	0	31
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3