Sarpsborg 08 II v Bjørkelangen prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Sarpsborg 08 II 7–0 Bjørkelangen SARPSBORG 08 II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sarpsborg 08 II win~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.024

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sarpsborg 08 II win at 88%.
1′KICK-OFF Sarpsborg 08 II v Bjørkelangen
2′Little has changed for our model: Sarpsborg 08 II 88% before kick-off, 87% now. 0–0 · 87–8–5
28′A goal for Sarpsborg 08 II on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–5–2
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Sarpsborg 08 II 1–0 Bjørkelangen
30′Sarpsborg 08 II score on 29′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.2 we expected. 2–0 · 98–1–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Sarpsborg 08 II 2–0 Bjørkelangen
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Sarpsborg 08 II win: 88% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Sarpsborg 08 II 2–0 Bjørkelangen
46′SECOND HALF Sarpsborg 08 II 2–0 Bjørkelangen
50′Sarpsborg 08 II find the net on 50′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Sarpsborg 08 II 3–0 Bjørkelangen
51′We said Sarpsborg 08 II at 88% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′A goal for Sarpsborg 08 II on 63′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sarpsborg 08 II 4–0 Bjørkelangen
70′Sarpsborg 08 II score on 69′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sarpsborg 08 II 5–0 Bjørkelangen
77′Sarpsborg 08 II find the net on 77′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Sarpsborg 08 II 6–0 Bjørkelangen
78′That is 6, and we only asked for 5.2 across ninety minutes. 6–0 · 100–0–0
79′A goal for Sarpsborg 08 II on 78′ — 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
79′7 goals already, more than the 5.2 we expected for the whole match. 7–0 · 100–0–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Sarpsborg 08 II 7–0 Bjørkelangen
FTFULL TIME Sarpsborg 08 II 7–0 Bjørkelangen
FTSarpsborg 08 II 7–0 Bjørkelangen · Sarpsborg 08 II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 4–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sarpsborg 08 II 88%, draw 7%, Bjørkelangen 5%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Sarpsborg 08 II v BjørkelangenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Sarpsborg 08 II win88%

Draw7%

Bjørkelangen win5%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sarpsborg 08 II

Bjørkelangen

7Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sarpsborg 08 ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

88% The market–

Us88%

We make Sarpsborg 08 II an 88% chance to win. The model expects 4.2–1.0, and 4–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sarpsborg 08 II v Bjørkelangen~~4.18 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 29 v 3~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sarpsborg 08 II win	88%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
Bjørkelangen win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	75%	–	–
Sarpsborg 08 II or draw	95%	–	–
Sarpsborg 08 II clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bjørkelangen clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–1 at 6.7%

0123450 1 2.6 2.5 2 4.9 5.0 2.6 3 6.5 6.7 3.5 4 6.6 6.7 3.5 5 5.5 5.6 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Sarpsborg 08 II down, Bjørkelangen across0–5 goals a side shown (75.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sarpsborg 08 II at home: 3.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bjørkelangen away: 0.67 scored, 5.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.18 goals for Sarpsborg 08 II, 1.04 for Bjørkelangen. Most likely score 4–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BJO 2–0 SAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept

SARPSBORG 08 II

WWDWLD4–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1

BJØRKELANGEN

LLLLLL0–4 · 2–4 · 1–7 · 0–6 · 0–5 · 1–7

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	24	+57	59
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
3	Råde	24	+46	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Raelingen	24	−11	35
8	Oppsal	24	+2	33
9	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	24	−10	26
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3