Sandefjord II v Sarpsborg 08 II prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sandefjord IIDrawSarpsborg 08 II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sandefjord II 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sandefjord II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sandefjord II 51%, draw 18%, Sarpsborg 08 II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Sandefjord II v Sarpsborg 08 IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sandefjord II win51%

Draw18%

Sarpsborg 08 II win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sandefjord II

Sarpsborg 08 II

9Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	+4	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sandefjord ii winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Sandefjord II a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sandefjord II v Sarpsborg 08 II~~2.53 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 33 v 32~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandefjord II win	51%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Sarpsborg 08 II win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Sandefjord II or draw	70%	–	–
Sandefjord II clean sheet	15%	–	–
Sarpsborg 08 II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.0%

0123450 2.5 2.3 1 3.2 5.6 5.4 3.5 2 3.8 7.0 6.6 4.3 2.1 3 3.2 5.8 5.5 3.5 4 3.7 3.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandefjord II down, Sarpsborg 08 II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.4% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandefjord II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sarpsborg 08 II away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.53 goals for Sandefjord II, 1.93 for Sarpsborg 08 II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAR 2–3 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept

SANDEFJORD II

DWWDLL1–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–5

SARPSBORG 08 II

WDWLDW3–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 7–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	25	+56	59
2	Elverum	25	+31	53
3	Råde	25	+45	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	25	+20	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	25	+20	41
6	Ørn Horten	25	+7	38
7	Raelingen	25	−6	38
8	Lyn II	24	+1	34
9	Oppsal	24	+2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	+4	32
12	Fram	25	−9	29
13	Brumunddal	25	−83	12
14	Bjørkelangen	25	−89	3