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Sandefjord II v Råde

Sandefjord II

0–2Full time

Råde

3. Division - Girone 6 · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Sandefjord II 0–2 Råde RÅDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Råde win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.465

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.519

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Råde win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Råde was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 36–18–45
7′Much as we predicted: Råde was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 36–19–45
9′Råde find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–16–64
11′Råde ahead on 6′ through A. Lajqi. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–16–64
13′We published Råde at 45%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 20–16–64
15′A goal for Råde on 14′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 9–11–81
24′M. Langsaether scores for Råde on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 8–10–82
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
27′We published Råde at 45%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–2 · 7–10–82
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
29′A red card for Råde on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 7–10–83
29′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Råde
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 64% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
31′M. Langsaether scores for Råde on 23′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 7–10–83
31′Goals are coming at about the 5.1 we expected. 0–2 · 7–10–83
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
40′We published Råde at 45%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Råde win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Sandefjord II 0–2 Råde
46′SECOND HALF Sandefjord II 0–2 Råde
FTFULL TIME Sandefjord II 0–2 Råde
FTSandefjord II 0–2 Råde · Råde win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Sandefjord II win37%

Draw18%

Råde win45%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sandefjord II

Råde

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Råde	22	+30	40
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · råde winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make Råde a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–2.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · råde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sandefjord II win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	18%	22%	−4
Råde win	45%	42%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Both teams to score	83%	77%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	96%	91%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	73%	62%	+11
Sandefjord II or draw	55%	58%	−4
Sandefjord II clean sheet	8%	–	–
Råde clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.2%

0123450 2.4 2.0 1 4.1 5.4 4.6 3.1 2 4.9 6.2 5.4 3.6 3 3.9 4.9 4.3 2.8 4 2.3 3.0 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sandefjord II down, Råde across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 158 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sandefjord II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Råde away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Sandefjord II, 2.66 for Råde. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAD 3–1 SAN

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6

SANDEFJORD II

LWDWWD3–4 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–1

RÅDE

LWWDLD2–3 · 2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
4	Råde	22	+30	40
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Lyn II	22	0	31
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3