Råde v Brumunddal prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Råde 14–0 Brumunddal RÅDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT5–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Råde win~~96%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.003

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Råde win at 96%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Råde 96% before kick-off, 96% now. 0–0 · 96–3–2
1′KICK-OFF Råde v Brumunddal
18′Råde score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 98–2–1
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Råde 1–0 Brumunddal
28′Råde find the net on 28′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Råde 2–0 Brumunddal
30′The goal count is tracking the 7.2 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
39′A goal for Råde on 38′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Råde 3–0 Brumunddal
45′HALF-TIME Råde 4–0 Brumunddal
46′SECOND HALF Råde 4–0 Brumunddal
47′Råde score on 45′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Råde 4–0 Brumunddal
57′Råde find the net on 57′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Råde 5–0 Brumunddal
62′A goal for Råde on 61′ — 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Råde 6–0 Brumunddal
64′Råde score on 64′ to make it 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Råde 7–0 Brumunddal
68′Råde find the net on 68′. 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
68′That is 8, and we only asked for 7.2 across ninety minutes. 8–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Råde 8–0 Brumunddal
70′A goal for Råde on 69′ — 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
70′A. Lajqi scores for Råde on 70′ — 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
70′9 goals already, more than the 7.2 we expected for the whole match. 9–0 · 100–0–0
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Råde 9–0 Brumunddal
76′Råde score on 75′ to make it 10–0. 10–0 · 100–0–0
76′That is 10, and we only asked for 7.2 across ninety minutes. 10–0 · 100–0–0
76′Råde find the net on 76′. 11–0. 11–0 · 100–0–0
76′11 goals already, more than the 7.2 we expected for the whole match. 11–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Råde 10–0 Brumunddal
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Råde 11–0 Brumunddal
81′A goal for Råde on 81′ — 12–0. 12–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Råde 12–0 Brumunddal
82′That is 12, and we only asked for 7.2 across ninety minutes. 12–0 · 100–0–0
83′Råde score on 82′ to make it 13–0. 13–0 · 100–0–0
83′13 goals already, more than the 7.2 we expected for the whole match. 13–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Råde 13–0 Brumunddal
84′83′: A. Makiadi on the scoresheet for Råde, making it 13–0. 13–0 · 100–0–0
87′Råde find the net on 87′. 14–0. 14–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Råde 14–0 Brumunddal
88′That is 14, and we only asked for 7.2 across ninety minutes. 14–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Råde 14–0 Brumunddal
FTRåde 14–0 Brumunddal · Råde win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 5–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Råde are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Råde 96%, draw 3%, Brumunddal 2%. Over 2.5 goals 97%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Råde v BrumunddalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Råde win96%

Draw3%

Brumunddal win2%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Råde

Brumunddal

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Råde	23	+32	43
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · råde winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

96% The market–

Us96%

We make Råde a 96% chance to win. The model expects 6.1–1.0, and 5–1 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Råde v Brumunddal~~6.14 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 43 v 12~~3 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Råde win	96%	–	–
Draw	3%	–	–
Brumunddal win	2%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	97%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	99%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	91%	–	–
Råde or draw	98%	–	–
Råde clean sheet	36%	–	–
Brumunddal clean sheet	<1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 5–1 at 5.4%

0123450 1 2 3 3.3 3.4 4 4.6 4.8 2.5 5 5.3 5.4 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Råde down, Brumunddal across0–5 goals a side shown (44.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Råde at home: 3.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Brumunddal away: 1.00 scored, 5.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

6.14 goals for Råde, 1.04 for Brumunddal. Most likely score 5–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BRU 2–1 RAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept

RÅDE

WWDLDW2–0 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 2–0

BRUMUNDDAL

DWLLLL1–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	23	+26	47
3	Råde	23	+32	43
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	23	+6	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Raelingen	23	−15	32
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3