Ørn Horten v Råde prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Ørn Horten 1–0 Råde RÅDE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Råde win~~48%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.976

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Råde win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Råde was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 33–20–48
1′KICK-OFF Ørn Horten v Råde
22′Ørn Horten score on 22′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 55–21–24
22′We said Råde at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 55–21–24
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ørn Horten 1–0 Råde
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Råde win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Ørn Horten win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Råde win 45%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 57–22–22
37′We said Råde at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Råde win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Ørn Horten 1–0 Råde
46′SECOND HALF Ørn Horten 1–0 Råde
52′We said Råde at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
64′We said Råde at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Råde win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
75′We said Råde at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Ørn Horten 1–0 Råde
FTØrn Horten 1–0 Råde · Råde win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Råde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ørn Horten 33%, draw 20%, Råde 48%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Ørn Horten v RådeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ørn Horten win33%

Draw20%

Råde win48%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueLystlunden Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ørn Horten

Råde

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Råde	24	+46	46
6	Ørn Horten	24	+6	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · råde winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market57%

Us48%

~~Market~~57%

We make Råde a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ørn Horten v Råde~~1.84 – 2.24

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 46~~6 v 3

~~The market · Råde win~~57% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Råde win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ørn Horten win	33%	22%	+11
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Råde win	48%	57%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Both teams to score	74%	69%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Ørn Horten or draw	52%	43%	+9
Ørn Horten clean sheet	11%	–	–
Råde clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.6%

0123450 4.1 4.3 3.2 1 3.4 6.8 7.6 5.6 3.2 2 3.0 6.3 6.9 5.1 2.9 3 3.9 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ørn Horten down, Råde across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.4% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ørn Horten at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Råde away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Ørn Horten, 2.24 for Råde. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAD 1–1 ORN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept

ØRN HORTEN

DLWWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–3

RÅDE

WDLDWW4–2 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 14–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	24	+57	59
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
3	Råde	24	+46	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
6	Ørn Horten	24	+6	35
7	Raelingen	24	−11	35
8	Lyn II	24	+1	34
9	Oppsal	24	+2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	+4	32
12	Fram	24	−10	26
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12
14	Bjørkelangen	24	−84	3