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Ørn Horten v Lillehammer

Ørn Horten

0–1Full time

Lillehammer

3. Division - Girone 6 · SAT 10 OCT · Lystlunden Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Ørn Horten 0–1 Lillehammer LILLEHAMMER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lillehammer win~~52%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lillehammer win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lillehammer 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 29–19–52
1′KICK-OFF Ørn Horten v Lillehammer
45′HALF-TIME Ørn Horten 0–0 Lillehammer
48′49′ and it is 0–0: Lillehammer have scored. 0–0 · 27–31–42
48′SECOND HALF Ørn Horten 0–0 Lillehammer
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Lillehammer win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 49' Ørn Horten 0–1 Lillehammer
70′We said Lillehammer at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Lillehammer win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
FTFULL TIME Ørn Horten 0–1 Lillehammer
FTØrn Horten 0–1 Lillehammer · Lillehammer win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ørn Horten win29%

Draw19%

Lillehammer win52%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Lystlunden Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lillehammer winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

52% The market60%

Us52%

~~Market~~60%

We make Lillehammer a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lillehammer win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ørn Horten win	29%	19%	+10
Draw	19%	20%	−1
Lillehammer win	52%	60%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	79%	70%	+8
Both teams to score	75%	66%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	92%	86%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	61%	51%	+10
Ørn Horten or draw	48%	40%	+8
Ørn Horten clean sheet	9%	–	–
Lillehammer clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 3.8 4.4 3.5 2.2 1 2.9 6.3 7.5 6.0 3.7 2 2.5 5.7 6.7 5.3 3.3 3 3.4 4.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ørn Horten down, Lillehammer across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ørn Horten at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lillehammer away: 3.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Ørn Horten, 2.44 for Lillehammer. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIL 3–2 ORN

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6

ØRN HORTEN

WLDLWW5–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 4–0

LILLEHAMMER

LWLWWW3–4 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 7–1 · 5–1 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	22	+51	53
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
3	Råde	22	+30	40
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	+16	38
5	Drøbak / Frogn	22	+19	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	+9	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33
8	Oppsal	22	+4	33
9	Lyn II	22	0	31
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28
12	Fram	22	−10	23
13	Brumunddal	22	−63	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	−71	3