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Oppsal v Drøbak / Frogn

Oppsal

1–2Full time

Drøbak / Frogn

3. Division - Girone 6 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn OPPSAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Oppsal win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.595

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Oppsal win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Oppsal v Drøbak / Frogn
3′Much as we predicted: Oppsal was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Oppsal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
23′W. Ostli scores for Drøbak / Frogn on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Oppsal win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Drøbak / Frogn win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Oppsal win 16%)
43′We said Oppsal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–66
45′HALF-TIME Oppsal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
49′SECOND HALF Oppsal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Oppsal 0–2 Drøbak / Frogn
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn
66′Oppsal ahead on 56′ through R. Iqbal. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Oppsal win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
84′⚽ GOAL · 12' Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn · W. Ostli
84′⚽ GOAL · 51' Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn · M. Fodstad
84′⚽ GOAL · 56' Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn · R. Iqbal
87′We said Oppsal at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Oppsal win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Oppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn
FTOppsal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn · Oppsal win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Oppsal win40%

Draw23%

Drøbak / Frogn win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oppsal winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Oppsal a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oppsal win	40%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Oppsal or draw	62%	–	–
Oppsal clean sheet	21%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.0 6.6 5.1 2.7 1 6.8 10.0 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.2 6.5 3.4 3 2.9 4.5 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oppsal down, Drøbak / Frogn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oppsal at home: 2.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Drøbak / Frogn away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Oppsal, 1.59 for Drøbak / Frogn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DRO 1–0 OPP · DRO 1–1 OPP · OPP 1–1 DRO

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6

OPPSAL

LLWWWL0–1 · 1–2 · 6–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–4

DRØBAK / FROGN

LWDWWW3–4 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	22	+51	53
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
3	Råde	22	+30	40
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	22	+16	38
5	Drøbak / Frogn	22	+19	35
6	Ørn Horten	22	+9	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33
8	Oppsal	22	+4	33
9	Lyn II	22	0	31
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28
12	Fram	22	−10	23
13	Brumunddal	22	−63	12
14	Bjørkelangen	22	−71	3