Lyn II v Ørn Horten prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Lyn II 3–1 Ørn Horten LYN II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lyn II win~~48%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.308

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lyn II win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lyn II was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–21–32
1′KICK-OFF Lyn II v Ørn Horten
3′A goal for Lyn II on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–16–15
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Lyn II 1–0 Ørn Horten
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 68% now
4′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–16–15
13′Ørn Horten score on 13′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 46–23–31
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Lyn II 1–1 Ørn Horten
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 46% now
16′12′: N. Gashi on the scoresheet for Ørn Horten, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–23–31
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 41–30–29
45′HALF-TIME Lyn II 1–1 Ørn Horten
46′SECOND HALF Lyn II 1–1 Ørn Horten
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
54′We said Lyn II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–37–27
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Lyn II win 37%)
59′We said Lyn II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–40–25
68′We said Lyn II at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
71′Lyn II find the net on 70′. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
71′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Lyn II 2–1 Ørn Horten
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 80% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Lyn II win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 52%)
78′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
90′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
94′A goal for Lyn II on 90′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′We published Lyn II at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Lyn II 3–1 Ørn Horten
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Lyn II win: 48% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Lyn II 3–1 Ørn Horten
FTLyn II 3–1 Ørn Horten · Lyn II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lyn II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lyn II 48%, draw 21%, Ørn Horten 32%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Lyn II v Ørn HortenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Lyn II win48%

Draw21%

Ørn Horten win32%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lyn II

Ørn Horten

7Days since last match9

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lyn ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

48% The market55%

Us48%

~~Market~~55%

We make Lyn II a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lyn II v Ørn Horten~~2.05 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 7 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 35~~10 v 6

~~The market · Lyn II win~~55% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lyn II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lyn II win	48%	55%	−7
Draw	21%	21%	0
Ørn Horten win	32%	24%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Both teams to score	69%	73%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	50%	59%	−9
Lyn II or draw	68%	76%	−8
Lyn II clean sheet	20%	–	–
Ørn Horten clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.5 4.4 3.4 1 5.4 8.2 6.8 3.7 2 5.3 8.3 6.8 3.7 3 3.6 5.7 4.6 2.5 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lyn II down, Ørn Horten across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 985 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lyn II at home: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ørn Horten away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Lyn II, 1.64 for Ørn Horten. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ORN 2–1 LYN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 7 Sept

LYN II

LLDLDL1–4 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 3–4

ØRN HORTEN

LDLWWL3–4 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 4–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	24	+57	59
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
3	Råde	24	+46	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Raelingen	24	−11	35
8	Oppsal	24	+2	33
9	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	24	−10	26
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3