Lillehammer v Sandefjord II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Lillehammer 5–0 Sandefjord II LILLEHAMMER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lillehammer win~~80%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.062

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.059

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lillehammer win at 80%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lillehammer 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–10–10
1′KICK-OFF Lillehammer v Sandefjord II
8′Lillehammer find the net on 7′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–6–4
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Lillehammer 1–0 Sandefjord II
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Lillehammer win: 80% at kick-off, 90% now
14′A goal for Lillehammer on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
14′We said Lillehammer at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Lillehammer 2–0 Sandefjord II
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.5 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Lillehammer 2–0 Sandefjord II
46′SECOND HALF Lillehammer 2–0 Sandefjord II
48′Lillehammer score on 48′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Lillehammer 3–0 Sandefjord II
51′Lillehammer score on 48′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
51′We said Lillehammer at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
52′The goal count is tracking the 5.5 we expected. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′49′: A. M. Leqvamb on the scoresheet for Lillehammer, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
54′Lillehammer find the net on 54′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′We said Lillehammer at 80% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Lillehammer 4–0 Sandefjord II
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Lillehammer win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
65′A goal for Lillehammer on 65′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Lillehammer 5–0 Sandefjord II
FTFULL TIME Lillehammer 5–0 Sandefjord II
FTLillehammer 5–0 Sandefjord II · Lillehammer win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lillehammer are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lillehammer 80%, draw 10%, Sandefjord II 10%. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Lillehammer v Sandefjord IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lillehammer win80%

Draw10%

Sandefjord II win10%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lillehammer

Sandefjord II

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lillehammer winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 11:16 · locked at kick-off

80% The market80%

Us80%

~~Market~~80%

We make Lillehammer an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are level with the market. The model expects 4.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lillehammer v Sandefjord II~~3.98 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 56 v 33~~1 v 7

~~The market · Lillehammer win~~80% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lillehammer win The market, margin stripped

Published at 79%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lillehammer win	80%	80%	0
Draw	10%	12%	−2
Sandefjord II win	10%	7%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	90%	81%	+9
Both teams to score	75%	62%	+13
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	78%	65%	+13
Lillehammer or draw	90%	93%	−3
Lillehammer clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sandefjord II clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.4%

0123450 1 2.7 2.0 2 3.6 5.1 3.7 3 4.5 6.4 4.7 2.3 4 4.4 6.2 4.5 2.3 5 3.5 4.9 3.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Lillehammer down, Sandefjord II across0–5 goals a side shown (77.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023 in every competition we cover, 7.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lillehammer at home: 3.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sandefjord II away: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.98 goals for Lillehammer, 1.48 for Sandefjord II. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~7.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 4–3 LIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept

LILLEHAMMER

WLWWWW3–0 · 1–3 · 7–1 · 5–1 · 4–2 · 1–0

SANDEFJORD II

WDWWDL2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	23	+26	47
3	Råde	23	+32	43
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	23	+6	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Raelingen	23	−15	32
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3