Gjøvik-Lyn v Oppsal prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal GJØVIK-LYN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Gjøvik-Lyn win~~60%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.242

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.222

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gjøvik-Lyn win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gjøvik-Lyn was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–18
1′KICK-OFF Gjøvik-Lyn v Oppsal
4′Gjøvik-Lyn score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
4′We published Gjøvik-Lyn at 60%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Gjøvik-Lyn win: 60% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–5
45′HALF-TIME Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal
46′SECOND HALF Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal
60′We published Gjøvik-Lyn at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
76′We published Gjøvik-Lyn at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Gjøvik-Lyn win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
84′We published Gjøvik-Lyn at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Gjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal
FTGjøvik-Lyn 1–0 Oppsal · Gjøvik-Lyn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gjøvik-Lyn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gjøvik-Lyn 60%, draw 22%, Oppsal 18%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Gjøvik-Lyn v OppsalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gjøvik-Lyn win60%

Draw22%

Oppsal win18%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gjøvik-Lyn

Oppsal

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gjøvik-lyn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market62%

Us60%

~~Market~~62%

We make Gjøvik-Lyn a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gjøvik-Lyn v Oppsal~~1.88 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 33~~4 v 8

~~The market · Gjøvik-Lyn win~~62% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gjøvik-Lyn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gjøvik-Lyn win	60%	62%	−2
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Oppsal win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	50%	61%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	31%	45%	−14
Gjøvik-Lyn or draw	82%	83%	−1
Gjøvik-Lyn clean sheet	41%	–	–
Oppsal clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.3 5.9 2.6 1 11.9 10.1 4.7 2 10.7 9.5 4.4 3 6.7 5.9 2.7 4 3.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gjøvik-Lyn down, Oppsal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gjøvik-Lyn at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oppsal away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Gjøvik-Lyn, 0.91 for Oppsal. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~OPP 0–1 GJO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept

GJØVIK-LYN

LWLLWW0–2 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 5–0 · 7–1

OPPSAL

LWWWLL1–2 · 6–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	23	+26	47
3	Råde	23	+32	43
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	23	+6	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Raelingen	23	−15	32
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3