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Elverum v Lyn II

Elverum

4–3Full time

Lyn II

3. Division - Girone 6 · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31

Elverum 4–3 Lyn II ELVERUM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elverum win~~67%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.161

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elverum win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Elverum was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–16–17
3′2′ and it is 1–0: Elverum have scored. 1–0 · 83–10–7
5′We published Elverum at 67%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–10–7
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
13′3′ and it is 1–0: M. Damhaug on the scoresheet for Elverum. 1–0 · 83–11–7
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
14′3′ and it is 1–0: M. Damhaug on the scoresheet for Elverum. 1–0 · 83–11–7
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
15′3′ and it is 1–0: M. Damhaug on the scoresheet for Elverum. 1–0 · 83–11–7
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
17′We published Elverum at 67%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–11–7
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Elverum 2–0 Lyn II
19′Elverum find the net on 18′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 93% now
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Elverum 2–1 Lyn II
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 93% now
21′A goal for Lyn II on 19′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–11–7
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 93% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
23′H. W. Evensen scores for Lyn II on 20′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–11–7
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Elverum 3–1 Lyn II
30′29′ and it is 3–1: Elverum have scored. 3–1 · 94–5–2
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 94% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 94% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
33′⚽ GOAL · 3' Elverum 3–1 Lyn II · M. Damhaug
33′⚽ GOAL · 17' Elverum 3–1 Lyn II · J. Enkerud
33′⚽ GOAL · 20' Elverum 3–1 Lyn II · H. W. Evensen
33′⚽ GOAL · 28' Elverum 3–1 Lyn II · J. Enkerud
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Elverum win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Elverum 3–1 Lyn II
46′SECOND HALF Elverum 3–1 Lyn II
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Elverum 4–1 Lyn II
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Elverum 4–2 Lyn II
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Elverum 4–3 Lyn II
FTFULL TIME Elverum 4–3 Lyn II
FTElverum 4–3 Lyn II · Elverum win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Elverum win67%

Draw15%

Lyn II win17%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Elverum

Lyn II

9Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
9	Lyn II	22	0	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elverum winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:09 · locked at kick-off

67% The market78%

Us67%

~~Market~~78%

We make Elverum a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · elverum win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elverum win	67%	78%	−11
Draw	15%	13%	+2
Lyn II win	17%	9%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Both teams to score	72%	61%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	93%	91%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	64%	62%	+2
Elverum or draw	83%	91%	−8
Elverum clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lyn II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.1 1 3.9 5.2 3.9 2 5.4 7.6 5.5 2.7 3 5.2 7.3 5.3 2.6 4 3.8 5.3 3.9 5 2.3 3.2 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Elverum down, Lyn II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.7% of games this season, across 158 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elverum at home: 3.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lyn II away: 2.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.94 goals for Elverum, 1.46 for Lyn II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LYN 2–1 ELV

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6

ELVERUM

WDLWLW4–3 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 5–0

LYN II

WLLDLD4–3 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	22	+25	44
3	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
4	Råde	22	+30	40
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	22	+8	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Lyn II	22	0	31
10	Raelingen	22	−15	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	22	−3	28
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3