Elverum v Gjøvik-Lyn prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Elverum 3–0 Gjøvik-Lyn ELVERUM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elverum win~~50%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elverum win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Elverum 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
1′KICK-OFF Elverum v Gjøvik-Lyn
37′Elverum score on 36′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–8
37′We said Elverum at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Elverum 1–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Elverum win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
38′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–8
43′Elverum find the net on 42′. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
43′We said Elverum at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' Elverum 2–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Elverum win: 50% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Elverum 2–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
46′SECOND HALF Elverum 2–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
52′We said Elverum at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
67′A goal for Elverum on 66′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′We said Elverum at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Elverum 3–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Elverum win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Elverum 3–0 Gjøvik-Lyn
FTElverum 3–0 Gjøvik-Lyn · Elverum win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elverum are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elverum 50%, draw 22%, Gjøvik-Lyn 27%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Elverum v Gjøvik-LynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Elverum win50%

Draw22%

Gjøvik-Lyn win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elverum

Gjøvik-Lyn

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elverum winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market46%

Us50%

~~Market~~46%

We make Elverum a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elverum v Gjøvik-Lyn~~1.82 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 44~~2 v 4

~~The market · Elverum win~~46% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elverum win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elverum win	50%	46%	+4
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Gjøvik-Lyn win	27%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	70%	−11
Both teams to score	59%	69%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	37%	51%	−14
Elverum or draw	73%	70%	+3
Elverum clean sheet	29%	–	–
Gjøvik-Lyn clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.7 6.2 3.7 1 8.7 10.1 6.5 2.8 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.6 5.6 3.6 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elverum down, Gjøvik-Lyn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.4% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elverum at home: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gjøvik-Lyn away: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Elverum, 1.27 for Gjøvik-Lyn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~GJO 1–0 ELV · ELV 2–1 GJO · GJO 2–0 ELV · ELV 2–0 GJO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept

ELVERUM

LWLWWW2–4 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 5–0 · 4–3 · 3–1

GJØVIK-LYN

WLLWWW2–0 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 5–0 · 7–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	24	+57	59
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
3	Råde	24	+46	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
6	Ørn Horten	24	+6	35
7	Raelingen	24	−11	35
8	Lyn II	24	+1	34
9	Oppsal	24	+2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	+4	32
12	Fram	24	−10	26
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12
14	Bjørkelangen	24	−84	3