Drøbak / Frogn v Elverum prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Drøbak / Frogn 1–3 Elverum DRØBAK / FROGN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Drøbak / Frogn win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Drøbak / Frogn win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Drøbak / Frogn was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–21–36
1′KICK-OFF Drøbak / Frogn v Elverum
12′Drøbak / Frogn score on 11′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–18–18
12′We published Drøbak / Frogn at 43%. Our model now makes it 64%. 1–0 · 64–18–18
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Drøbak / Frogn 1–0 Elverum
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Drøbak / Frogn win: 43% at kick-off, 64% now
13′12′: M. Fodstad on the scoresheet for Drøbak / Frogn, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–18–18
17′We published Drøbak / Frogn at 43%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–18–17
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 1–0 · 66–20–15
39′Elverum find the net on 39′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–29–33
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Drøbak / Frogn 1–1 Elverum
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Drøbak / Frogn win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Drøbak / Frogn 1–1 Elverum
46′SECOND HALF Drøbak / Frogn 1–1 Elverum
53′A goal for Elverum on 52′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–23–66
53′We said Drøbak / Frogn at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–23–66
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Drøbak / Frogn 1–2 Elverum
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Drøbak / Frogn win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Elverum win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Drøbak / Frogn win 12%)
60′We said Drøbak / Frogn at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
63′Elverum score on 63′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–6–92
63′We said Drøbak / Frogn at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–6–92
63′4 goals already, more than the 3.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–6–92
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Drøbak / Frogn 1–3 Elverum
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Drøbak / Frogn win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Drøbak / Frogn 1–3 Elverum
FTDrøbak / Frogn 1–3 Elverum · Drøbak / Frogn win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Drøbak / Frogn are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Drøbak / Frogn 43%, draw 20%, Elverum 36%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Drøbak / Frogn v ElverumBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Drøbak / Frogn win43%

Draw20%

Elverum win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Drøbak / Frogn

Elverum

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

Last match: 12 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Elverum	23	+26	47
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drøbak / frogn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:43 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Drøbak / Frogn a 43% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Drøbak / Frogn v Elverum~~2.02 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 38 v 47~~5 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Drøbak / Frogn win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Drøbak / Frogn win	43%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Elverum win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn or draw	64%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn clean sheet	16%	–	–
Elverum clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.1 4.2 3.7 2.3 1 4.5 7.6 7.1 4.4 2.1 2 4.3 7.7 7.0 4.3 2.0 3 2.9 5.2 4.7 2.9 4 2.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Drøbak / Frogn down, Elverum across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Drøbak / Frogn at home: 3.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Elverum away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Drøbak / Frogn, 1.85 for Elverum. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ELV 1–0 DRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 5 Sept

DRØBAK / FROGN

WDWWWW4–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

ELVERUM

DLWLWW1–1 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 5–0 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	23	+52	56
2	Elverum	23	+26	47
3	Råde	23	+32	43
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	+22	41
5	Drøbak / Frogn	23	+20	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	+8	35
7	Sandefjord II	23	+6	33
8	Oppsal	23	+3	33
9	Raelingen	23	−15	32
10	Lyn II	23	−1	31
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	23	−3	29
12	Fram	23	−6	26
13	Brumunddal	23	−67	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	−77	3