Brumunddal v Drøbak / Frogn prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Brumunddal 1–3 Drøbak / Frogn DRØBAK / FROGN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–3 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Drøbak / Frogn win~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.063

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Drøbak / Frogn win at 80%.
1′Much as we predicted: Drøbak / Frogn was 80% before kick-off and our model makes it 79% now. 0–0 · 10–11–79
1′KICK-OFF Brumunddal v Drøbak / Frogn
26′A goal for Drøbak / Frogn on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–8–89
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Brumunddal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
45′HALF-TIME Brumunddal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
46′SECOND HALF Brumunddal 0–1 Drøbak / Frogn
58′Drøbak / Frogn score on 58′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
58′We published Drøbak / Frogn at 80%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Brumunddal 0–2 Drøbak / Frogn
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Drøbak / Frogn win: 80% at kick-off, 97% now
82′We published Drøbak / Frogn at 80%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Drøbak / Frogn win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
85′Brumunddal find the net on 84′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
85′We published Drøbak / Frogn at 80%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Brumunddal 1–2 Drøbak / Frogn
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Drøbak / Frogn win: 80% at kick-off, 94% now
87′A goal for Drøbak / Frogn on 87′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Brumunddal 1–3 Drøbak / Frogn
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Drøbak / Frogn win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Brumunddal 1–3 Drøbak / Frogn
FTBrumunddal 1–3 Drøbak / Frogn · Drøbak / Frogn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–3 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Drøbak / Frogn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brumunddal 10%, draw 11%, Drøbak / Frogn 80%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Brumunddal v Drøbak / FrognBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Brumunddal win10%

Draw11%

Drøbak / Frogn win80%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brumunddal

Drøbak / Frogn

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drøbak / frogn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

80% The market–

Us80%

We make Drøbak / Frogn an 80% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–3.7, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brumunddal v Drøbak / Frogn~~1.29 – 3.72

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 38~~13 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brumunddal win	10%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn win	80%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	72%	–	–
Brumunddal or draw	20%	–	–
Brumunddal clean sheet	3%	–	–
Drøbak / Frogn clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 7.0%

0123450 2.8 4.7 5.6 5.1 3.91 3.4 6.0 7.0 6.3 4.72 2.3 3.9 4.5 4.1 3.03 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brumunddal down, Drøbak / Frogn across0–5 goals a side shown (81.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 6 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.4% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brumunddal at home: 0.83 scored, 3.83 conceded a game (last 6). Drøbak / Frogn away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Brumunddal, 3.72 for Drøbak / Frogn. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DRO 7–1 BRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 6 this season · since 12 Sept

BRUMUNDDAL

WLLLLL4–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 0–14

DRØBAK / FROGN

DWWWWL2–2 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lillehammer	24	+57	59
2	Elverum	24	+28	50
3	Råde	24	+46	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	+23	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	24	+18	38
6	Ørn Horten	24	+6	35
7	Raelingen	24	−11	35
8	Lyn II	24	+1	34
9	Oppsal	24	+2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	+1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	+4	32
12	Fram	24	−10	26
13	Brumunddal	24	−81	12
14	Bjørkelangen	24	−84	3