Ulfstind v Lillestrøm II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Ulfstind 0–5 Lillestrøm II LILLESTRØM II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lillestrøm II win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lillestrøm II win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lillestrøm II was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 24–14–62
1′KICK-OFF Ulfstind v Lillestrøm II
45′HALF-TIME Ulfstind 0–0 Lillestrøm II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Lillestrøm II win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
46′SECOND HALF Ulfstind 0–0 Lillestrøm II
50′Lillestrøm II find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–15–75
50′We published Lillestrøm II at 62%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–15–75
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Ulfstind 0–1 Lillestrøm II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Lillestrøm II win: 62% at kick-off, 75% now
68′A goal for Lillestrøm II on 68′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
68′We published Lillestrøm II at 62%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Ulfstind 0–2 Lillestrøm II
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Lillestrøm II win: 62% at kick-off, 94% now
69′We published Lillestrøm II at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
70′S. Akanji scores for Lillestrøm II on 69′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
71′Lillestrøm II score on 71′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Ulfstind 0–3 Lillestrøm II
75′We published Lillestrøm II at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
83′Lillestrøm II find the net on 83′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Ulfstind 0–4 Lillestrøm II
86′Lillestrøm II ahead on 82′ through W. Fadil. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ulfstind 0–5 Lillestrøm II
FTUlfstind 0–5 Lillestrøm II · Lillestrøm II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lillestrøm II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ulfstind 24%, draw 14%, Lillestrøm II 62%. Over 2.5 goals 93%, both teams to score 87%.

The AI’s read on Ulfstind v Lillestrøm IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ulfstind win24%

Draw14%

Lillestrøm II win62%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ulfstind

Lillestrøm II

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lillestrøm ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Lillestrøm II a 62% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–3.7, and 2–3 is the single most likely score at 5%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ulfstind v Lillestrøm II~~2.35 – 3.69

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 28~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulfstind win	24%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Lillestrøm II win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	93%	–	–
Both teams to score	87%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	98%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	84%	–	–
Ulfstind or draw	38%	–	–
Ulfstind clean sheet	3%	–	–
Lillestrøm II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–3 at 5.2%

0123450 2.1 1 2.2 4.0 4.6 4.1 3.02 2.7 4.5 5.2 4.6 3.43 2.1 3.5 4.0 3.6 2.64 2.1 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulfstind down, Lillestrøm II across0–5 goals a side shown (79.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 11.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulfstind at home: 1.67 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lillestrøm II away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.35 goals for Ulfstind, 3.69 for Lillestrøm II. Most likely score 2–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~11.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIL 10–1 ULF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept

ULFSTIND

LLLLLD1–6 · 1–6 · 3–4 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 2–2

LILLESTRØM II

WLLLDL11–0 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 3–8 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Harstad	24	+41	46
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33
8	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15