Tromsø II v Skjervøy prediction · 3. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tromsø IIDrawSkjervøy

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tromsø II 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tromsø II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tromsø II 66%, draw 17%, Skjervøy 18%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Tromsø II v SkjervøyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tromsø II win66%

Draw17%

Skjervøy win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tromsø II

Skjervøy

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Tromsø II	24	+1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tromsø ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Tromsø II a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tromsø II v Skjervøy~~2.50 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 14 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 27~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tromsø II win	66%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Skjervøy win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Tromsø II or draw	82%	–	–
Tromsø II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Skjervøy clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.2 3.7 1 7.0 6.9 4.4 2 7.7 8.9 5.3 2.2 3 6.3 7.3 4.4 4 4.0 4.6 2.8 5 2.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Tromsø II down, Skjervøy across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 83.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tromsø II at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Skjervøy away: 1.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.50 goals for Tromsø II, 1.20 for Skjervøy. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SKJ 2–0 TRO · SKJ 2–2 TRO · TRO 5–0 SKJ · TRO 6–0 SKJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 14 Sept

TROMSØ II

LWWDWL2–3 · 6–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

SKJERVØY

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	25	+28	56
2	Fløya	25	+34	51
3	Harstad	24	+41	46
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	24	+7	40
6	Kongsvinger II	25	−17	35
7	Strømsgodset II	25	+4	33
8	Skjetten	24	+3	33
9	Lillestrøm II	25	+16	31
10	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
11	Tromsø II	24	+1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27
13	Bossekop	24	−43	19
14	Ulfstind	25	−53	15