Tromsø II v Lillestrøm II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Tromsø II 2–0 Lillestrøm II TROMSØ II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tromsø II win~~51%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.373

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tromsø II win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tromsø II 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–18–31
1′KICK-OFF Tromsø II v Lillestrøm II
3′Little has changed for our model: Tromsø II 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–18–31
45′HALF-TIME Tromsø II 0–0 Lillestrøm II
46′SECOND HALF Tromsø II 0–0 Lillestrøm II
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tromsø II 1–0 Lillestrøm II
69′⚽ GOAL · 53' Tromsø II 1–0 Lillestrøm II · E. Bjerkaas
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tromsø II 2–0 Lillestrøm II
FTFULL TIME Tromsø II 2–0 Lillestrøm II
FTTromsø II 2–0 Lillestrøm II · Tromsø II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tromsø II win51%

Draw17%

Lillestrøm II win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tromsø II

Lillestrøm II

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tromsø ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

51% The market54%

Us51%

~~Market~~54%

We make Tromsø II a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tromsø ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tromsø II win	51%	54%	−3
Draw	17%	20%	−3
Lillestrøm II win	32%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	87%	79%	+7
Both teams to score	82%	76%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	95%	91%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	73%	62%	+10
Tromsø II or draw	68%	74%	−7
Tromsø II clean sheet	12%	–	–
Lillestrøm II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.1%

0123450 2.0 1 2.4 4.0 4.6 3.4 2 2.7 5.7 6.1 4.5 2.5 3 2.5 5.1 5.5 4.1 2.3 4 3.6 3.8 2.8 5 2.1 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Tromsø II down, Lillestrøm II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tromsø II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Lillestrøm II away: 1.83 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.79 goals for Tromsø II, 2.23 for Lillestrøm II. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIL 5–3 TRO

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

TROMSØ II

LLLWWD1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 6–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

LILLESTRØM II

WWLLLD1–0 · 11–0 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 3–8 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Fløya	23	+31	48
3	Alta	23	+26	45
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15