Strømsgodset II v Ulfstind prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Strømsgodset II 7–2 Ulfstind STRØMSGODSET II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strømsgodset II win~~80%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.060

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strømsgodset II win at 80%.
1′Much as we predicted: Strømsgodset II was 80% before kick-off and our model makes it 80% now. 0–0 · 80–10–10
1′KICK-OFF Strømsgodset II v Ulfstind
12′Strømsgodset II find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–7–4
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Strømsgodset II 1–0 Ulfstind
17′A goal for Ulfstind on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 76–13–11
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Strømsgodset II 1–1 Ulfstind
21′J. Engstad Indal scores for Ulfstind on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 75–14–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 5.3 we expected. 1–1 · 72–16–12
36′Strømsgodset II score on 36′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 88–9–4
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Strømsgodset II win: 80% at kick-off, 70% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Strømsgodset II 2–1 Ulfstind
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Strømsgodset II win: 80% at kick-off, 88% now
42′Strømsgodset II find the net on 42′. 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Strømsgodset II 3–1 Ulfstind
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Strømsgodset II win: 80% at kick-off, 96% now
43′We published Strømsgodset II at 80%. Our model now makes it 96%. 3–1 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Strømsgodset II 4–1 Ulfstind
46′SECOND HALF Strømsgodset II 4–1 Ulfstind
47′A goal for Strømsgodset II on 45′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Strømsgodset II 4–1 Ulfstind
55′Strømsgodset II score on 55′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
55′We published Strømsgodset II at 80%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 5–1 · 100–0–0
55′6 goals already, more than the 5.3 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Strømsgodset II 5–1 Ulfstind
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Strømsgodset II win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
58′Strømsgodset II find the net on 57′. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
58′That is 7, and we only asked for 5.3 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Strømsgodset II 6–1 Ulfstind
82′A goal for Ulfstind on 81′ — 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
82′8 goals already, more than the 5.3 we expected for the whole match. 6–2 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Strømsgodset II 6–2 Ulfstind
92′Strømsgodset II score on 90′ to make it 7–2. 7–2 · 100–0–0
92′That is 9, and we only asked for 5.3 across ninety minutes. 7–2 · 100–0–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Strømsgodset II 7–2 Ulfstind
FTFULL TIME Strømsgodset II 7–2 Ulfstind
FTStrømsgodset II 7–2 Ulfstind · Strømsgodset II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strømsgodset II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strømsgodset II 80%, draw 10%, Ulfstind 10%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Strømsgodset II v UlfstindBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Strømsgodset II win80%

Draw10%

Ulfstind win10%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strømsgodset II

Ulfstind

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Strømsgodset II	24	−1	30
14	Ulfstind	24	−48	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strømsgodset ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

80% The market83%

Us80%

~~Market~~83%

We make Strømsgodset II an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strømsgodset II v Ulfstind~~3.94 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 30 v 15~~10 v 14

~~The market · Strømsgodset II win~~83% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strømsgodset II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 77%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strømsgodset II win	80%	83%	−3
Draw	10%	11%	−1
Ulfstind win	10%	6%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Both teams to score	73%	65%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Strømsgodset II or draw	90%	94%	−4
Strømsgodset II clean sheet	25%	–	–
Ulfstind clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.6%

0123450 1 2.4 2.7 2.1 2 3.9 5.3 3.7 3 4.8 6.6 4.6 2.2 4 4.6 6.2 4.3 2.1 5 3.6 4.8 3.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Strømsgodset II down, Ulfstind across0–5 goals a side shown (78.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 83.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strømsgodset II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ulfstind away: 1.17 scored, 4.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.94 goals for Strømsgodset II, 1.41 for Ulfstind. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ULF 1–3 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 12 Sept

STRØMSGODSET II

LLLDWW3–5 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 5–1 · 3–1

ULFSTIND

LLLLDL1–6 · 3–4 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	24	+24	53
2	Fløya	24	+32	48
3	Harstad	24	+41	46
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	24	+7	40
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	24	+3	33
8	Lillestrøm II	24	+18	31
9	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
10	Strømsgodset II	24	−1	30
11	Tromsø II	24	+1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27
13	Bossekop	24	−43	19
14	Ulfstind	24	−48	15