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Strømsgodset II v Skjetten

Strømsgodset II

5–1Full time

Skjetten

3. Division - Girone 5 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Strømsgodset II 5–1 Skjetten STRØMSGODSET II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strømsgodset II win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.544

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.444

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strømsgodset II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Strømsgodset II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–20–40
13′Much as we predicted: Strømsgodset II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–22–39
30′A goal for Strømsgodset II on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–20–18
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
38′A. van der Spa scores for Strømsgodset II on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–21–16
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 63% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Strømsgodset II 2–0 Skjetten
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 64% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Strømsgodset II 3–0 Skjetten
45′HALF-TIME Strømsgodset II 3–0 Skjetten
45′⚽ GOAL · 28' Strømsgodset II 3–0 Skjetten · A. van der Spa
45′⚽ GOAL · 42' Strømsgodset II 3–0 Skjetten · S. Andresen
46′SECOND HALF Strømsgodset II 3–0 Skjetten
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Strømsgodset II 3–1 Skjetten
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Strømsgodset II 4–1 Skjetten
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Strømsgodset II 5–1 Skjetten
FTFULL TIME Strømsgodset II 5–1 Skjetten
FTStrømsgodset II 5–1 Skjetten · Strømsgodset II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Strømsgodset II win41%

Draw18%

Skjetten win41%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Strømsgodset II

Skjetten

7Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strømsgodset ii winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Strømsgodset II a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–2.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · strømsgodset ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strømsgodset II win	41%	46%	−5
Draw	18%	23%	−5
Skjetten win	41%	31%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	80%	71%	+8
Both teams to score	76%	71%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	92%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	62%	51%	+11
Strømsgodset II or draw	59%	69%	−9
Strømsgodset II clean sheet	12%	–	–
Skjetten clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.8%

0123450 3.6 3.2 2.3 1 3.6 5.8 6.5 4.6 2.5 2 3.2 6.6 6.8 4.8 2.7 3 2.3 4.7 4.9 3.5 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strømsgodset II down, Skjetten across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strømsgodset II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Skjetten away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Strømsgodset II, 2.16 for Skjetten. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SKJ 1–3 STR

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

STRØMSGODSET II

LWLLLD1–2 · 5–1 · 3–5 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–3

SKJETTEN

DWLWWL2–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 6–1 · 3–0 · 3–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Fløya	23	+31	48
3	Alta	23	+26	45
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15