Skjetten v Finnsnes prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Skjetten 1–3 Finnsnes SKJETTEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skjetten win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skjetten win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Skjetten 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–19–26
1′KICK-OFF Skjetten v Finnsnes
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′Finnsnes score on 45′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–26–56
45′We said Skjetten at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–56
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Skjetten 0–1 Finnsnes
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 19% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Finnsnes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Skjetten win 19%)
45′HALF-TIME Skjetten 0–1 Finnsnes
46′SECOND HALF Skjetten 0–1 Finnsnes
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
54′Finnsnes find the net on 53′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–11–85
54′We said Skjetten at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
54′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–2 · 4–11–85
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Skjetten 0–2 Finnsnes
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 4% now
59′A goal for Skjetten on 58′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 12–26–62
59′We said Skjetten at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–26–62
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Skjetten 1–2 Finnsnes
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 12% now
62′Finnsnes score on 62′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–89
62′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–8–89
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Skjetten 1–3 Finnsnes
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Skjetten win: 55% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Skjetten 1–3 Finnsnes
FTSkjetten 1–3 Finnsnes · Skjetten win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skjetten are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skjetten 55%, draw 19%, Finnsnes 26%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Skjetten v FinnsnesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skjetten win55%

Draw19%

Finnsnes win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skjetten

Finnsnes

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 9 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skjetten winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Skjetten a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skjetten v Finnsnes~~2.23 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 37~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skjetten win	55%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Finnsnes win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Skjetten or draw	74%	–	–
Skjetten clean sheet	24%	–	–
Finnsnes clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.1 4.5 2.8 1 6.3 7.5 5.8 2.9 2 6.2 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 4.5 6.4 4.6 2.3 4 2.6 3.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skjetten down, Finnsnes across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skjetten at home: 3.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Finnsnes away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Skjetten, 1.47 for Finnsnes. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FIN 2–1 SKJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept

SKJETTEN

WLWWLL3–2 · 1–3 · 6–1 · 3–0 · 3–4 · 1–5

FINNSNES

LLLWDD1–5 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Harstad	24	+41	46
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33
8	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
9	Strømsgodset II	24	−1	30
10	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
11	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15