Skjervøy v Strømsgodset II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Skjervøy 1–3 Strømsgodset II STRØMSGODSET II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strømsgodset II win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strømsgodset II win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Strømsgodset II was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 40–19–41
1′KICK-OFF Skjervøy v Strømsgodset II
45′HALF-TIME Skjervøy 1–0 Strømsgodset II
46′SECOND HALF Skjervøy 1–0 Strømsgodset II
48′A goal for Skjervøy on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–13
48′We said Strømsgodset II at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Skjervøy 1–0 Strømsgodset II
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 13% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' Skjervøy win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Strømsgodset II win 13%)
51′Strømsgodset II score on 51′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
51′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 1–1 · 33–33–34
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Skjervøy 1–1 Strømsgodset II
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
53′Strømsgodset II find the net on 53′. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–22–67
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Skjervøy 1–2 Strømsgodset II
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 67% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Strømsgodset II win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Skjervøy win 11%)
54′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–2 · 11–22–68
60′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–22–70
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
70′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
77′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
81′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
85′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Strømsgodset II win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
91′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
95′A goal for Strømsgodset II on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
95′We published Strømsgodset II at 41%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Skjervøy 1–3 Strømsgodset II
FTFULL TIME Skjervøy 1–3 Strømsgodset II
FTSkjervøy 1–3 Strømsgodset II · Strømsgodset II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Strømsgodset II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Skjervøy 40%, draw 19%, Strømsgodset II 41%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Skjervøy v Strømsgodset IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Skjervøy win40%

Draw19%

Strømsgodset II win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skjervøy

Strømsgodset II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strømsgodset ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Strømsgodset II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skjervøy v Strømsgodset II~~2.03 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 27~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skjervøy win	40%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Strømsgodset II win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Skjervøy or draw	59%	–	–
Skjervøy clean sheet	14%	–	–
Strømsgodset II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.0%

0123450 4.2 3.6 2.5 1 4.1 6.5 7.0 4.8 2.5 2 3.6 6.9 6.9 4.7 2.5 3 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.2 4 2.5 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skjervøy down, Strømsgodset II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skjervøy at home: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Strømsgodset II away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Skjervøy, 2.06 for Strømsgodset II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~STR 5–1 SKJ · SKJ 2–3 STR · STR 4–3 SKJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 6 Sept

SKJERVØY

DLLLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2

STRØMSGODSET II

WLLLDW5–1 · 3–5 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–3 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Harstad	24	+41	46
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33
8	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15