Skedsmo v Kongsvinger II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Skedsmo 5–1 Kongsvinger II SKEDSMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skedsmo win~~72%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.115

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.056

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skedsmo win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Skedsmo 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–14–14
1′KICK-OFF Skedsmo v Kongsvinger II
20′Skedsmo score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
20′We said Skedsmo at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Skedsmo 1–0 Kongsvinger II
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Skedsmo win: 72% at kick-off, 85% now
33′We said Skedsmo at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
39′Skedsmo find the net on 39′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
39′We said Skedsmo at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Skedsmo 2–0 Kongsvinger II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Skedsmo win: 72% at kick-off, 96% now
40′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
41′A goal for Skedsmo on 40′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Skedsmo 3–0 Kongsvinger II
45′HALF-TIME Skedsmo 3–0 Kongsvinger II
46′SECOND HALF Skedsmo 3–0 Kongsvinger II
57′We said Skedsmo at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′Skedsmo score on 67′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Skedsmo 4–0 Kongsvinger II
74′Skedsmo find the net on 74′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Skedsmo 5–0 Kongsvinger II
75′5 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
86′A goal for Kongsvinger II on 85′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
86′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Skedsmo 5–1 Kongsvinger II
FTFULL TIME Skedsmo 5–1 Kongsvinger II
FTSkedsmo 5–1 Kongsvinger II · Skedsmo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Skedsmo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Skedsmo 72%, draw 14%, Kongsvinger II 14%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Skedsmo v Kongsvinger IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Skedsmo win72%

Draw14%

Kongsvinger II win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Skedsmo

Kongsvinger II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 17 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skedsmo winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 10:15 · locked at kick-off

72% The market81%

Us72%

~~Market~~81%

We make Skedsmo a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Skedsmo v Kongsvinger II~~3.04 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 53 v 35~~1 v 6

~~The market · Skedsmo win~~81% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Skedsmo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 72% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skedsmo win	72%	81%	−9
Draw	14%	12%	+2
Kongsvinger II win	14%	8%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Skedsmo or draw	86%	92%	−6
Skedsmo clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kongsvinger II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.3 1 4.8 5.0 3.4 2 6.4 7.7 4.8 2.1 3 6.2 7.5 4.7 2.0 4 4.7 5.6 3.5 5 2.9 3.5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Skedsmo down, Kongsvinger II across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 83.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skedsmo at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kongsvinger II away: 2.00 scored, 3.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.04 goals for Skedsmo, 1.26 for Kongsvinger II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KON 1–3 SKE · KON 3–1 SKE · SKE 2–0 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 13 Sept

SKEDSMO

WWWDLW2–1 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–2

KONGSVINGER II

LLWWWW1–5 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 6–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	24	+24	53
2	Fløya	24	+32	48
3	Harstad	24	+41	46
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	24	+7	40
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	24	+3	33
8	Lillestrøm II	24	+18	31
9	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
10	Strømsgodset II	24	−1	30
11	Tromsø II	24	+1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27
13	Bossekop	24	−43	19
14	Ulfstind	24	−48	15