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Skedsmo v Fløya

Skedsmo

1–3Full time

Fløya

3. Division - Girone 5 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya SKEDSMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Skedsmo win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.796

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Skedsmo win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF Skedsmo v Fløya
4′Little has changed for our model: Skedsmo 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Skedsmo 0–1 Fløya
24′Fløya ahead on 6′ through G. Meyer. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–23–53
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Skedsmo win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Fløya win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Skedsmo win 23%)
44′We said Skedsmo at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–25–58
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Skedsmo win: 51% at kick-off, 17% now
45′HALF-TIME Skedsmo 0–1 Fløya
48′D. Dunlop scores for Skedsmo on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
48′SECOND HALF Skedsmo 0–1 Fløya
53′⚽ GOAL · 49' Skedsmo 1–1 Fløya · D. Dunlop
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Skedsmo 1–2 Fløya
70′58′ and it is 1–2: M. A. Berg on the scoresheet for Fløya. 1–2 · 6–22–72
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Skedsmo win: 51% at kick-off, 6% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya
88′⚽ GOAL · 6' Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya · G. Meyer
88′⚽ GOAL · 49' Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya · D. Dunlop
88′⚽ GOAL · 58' Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya · M. A. Berg
88′⚽ GOAL · 81' Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya · H. Bogdan
90′Fløya ahead on 81′ through H. Bogdan. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Skedsmo win: 51% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Skedsmo 1–3 Fløya
FTSkedsmo 1–3 Fløya · Skedsmo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Skedsmo win51%

Draw20%

Fløya win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · skedsmo winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make Skedsmo a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · skedsmo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Skedsmo win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	20%	23%	−4
Fløya win	29%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Both teams to score	66%	73%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	86%	87%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	47%	55%	−7
Skedsmo or draw	71%	68%	+2
Skedsmo clean sheet	23%	–	–
Fløya clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.4 5.2 3.3 1 6.8 8.0 6.4 3.3 2 6.0 8.6 6.4 3.3 3 4.1 5.9 4.4 2.2 4 2.2 3.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Skedsmo down, Fløya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Skedsmo at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fløya away: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Skedsmo, 1.51 for Fløya. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FLO 2–3 SKE

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

SKEDSMO

WDWWWD3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 7–0 · 2–2

FLØYA

LDWWWW2–3 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	22	+25	50
2	Fløya	22	+29	45
3	Alta	22	+25	42
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	22	−20	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15