Lillestrøm II v Fløya prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Lillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya FLØYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fløya win~~44%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fløya win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fløya was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 39–17–44
1′KICK-OFF Lillestrøm II v Fløya
12′A goal for Fløya on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–16–61
12′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it 61%. 0–1 · 22–16–61
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Lillestrøm II 0–1 Fløya
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Fløya win: 44% at kick-off, 61% now
14′M. A. Berg scores for Fløya on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–17–61
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Fløya win: 44% at kick-off, 64% now
44′Fløya score on 43′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 6–10–84
44′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–2 · 6–10–84
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Lillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Fløya win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Lillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya
46′SECOND HALF Lillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya
47′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
48′44′: Y. Johansen on the scoresheet for Fløya, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–10–85
62′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Fløya win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
74′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
89′We published Fløya at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Lillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya
FTLillestrøm II 0–2 Fløya · Fløya win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fløya just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Lillestrøm II 40%, draw 17%, Fløya 44%. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 85%.

The AI’s read on Lillestrøm II v FløyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lillestrøm II win40%

Draw17%

Fløya win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lillestrøm II

Fløya

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Fløya	24	+32	48
8	Lillestrøm II	24	+18	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fløya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

44% The market62%

Us44%

~~Market~~62%

We make Fløya a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lillestrøm II v Fløya~~2.58 – 2.74

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 48~~8 v 2

~~The market · Fløya win~~62% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fløya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lillestrøm II win	40%	20%	+20
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Fløya win	44%	62%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	89%	81%	+8
Both teams to score	85%	75%	+10
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	76%	64%	+12
Lillestrøm II or draw	56%	38%	+18
Lillestrøm II clean sheet	7%	–	–
Fløya clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.9%

0123450 1 3.4 4.7 4.2 2.8 2 4.6 5.9 5.1 3.5 3 3.9 5.0 4.4 3.0 4 2.5 3.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lillestrøm II down, Fløya across0–5 goals a side shown (87.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 987 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 83.3% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lillestrøm II at home: 4.67 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fløya away: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.58 goals for Lillestrøm II, 2.74 for Fløya. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FLO 3–2 LIL · FLO 2–0 LIL · LIL 0–3 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 13 Sept

LILLESTRØM II

LLLDLW1–2 · 2–4 · 3–8 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 5–0

FLØYA

WWWWWW5–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	24	+24	53
2	Fløya	24	+32	48
3	Harstad	24	+41	46
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	24	+7	40
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	24	+3	33
8	Lillestrøm II	24	+18	31
9	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
10	Strømsgodset II	24	−1	30
11	Tromsø II	24	+1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	−23	27
13	Bossekop	24	−43	19
14	Ulfstind	24	−48	15