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Kongsvinger II v Fauske Sprint

Kongsvinger II

6–2Full time

Fauske Sprint

3. Division - Girone 5 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Kongsvinger II 6–2 Fauske Sprint KONGSVINGER II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kongsvinger II win~~52%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.368

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.286

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kongsvinger II win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kongsvinger II 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–15–33
1′KICK-OFF Kongsvinger II v Fauske Sprint
9′Kongsvinger II find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–14–19
9′We said Kongsvinger II at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–14–19
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Kongsvinger II 1–0 Fauske Sprint
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Kongsvinger II win: 52% at kick-off, 67% now
19′A goal for Kongsvinger II on 19′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 82–9–9
19′We said Kongsvinger II at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–0 · 82–9–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Kongsvinger II 2–0 Fauske Sprint
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Kongsvinger II win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 6.1 we expected. 2–0 · 83–9–8
40′We said Kongsvinger II at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–0 · 85–9–6
45′HALF-TIME Kongsvinger II 2–0 Fauske Sprint
46′Kongsvinger II score on 46′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 95–4–2
46′52′: L. Braten on the scoresheet for Kongsvinger II, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 95–4–2
46′We said Kongsvinger II at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–0 · 95–4–2
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Kongsvinger II 3–0 Fauske Sprint
46′SECOND HALF Kongsvinger II 3–0 Fauske Sprint
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Kongsvinger II win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
47′Kongsvinger II ahead on 52′ through L. Braten. 4–0. 4–0 · 98–1–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Kongsvinger II 4–0 Fauske Sprint · L. Braten
48′Kongsvinger II ahead on 90′ through J. K. Konterud. 4–0. 4–0 · 99–1–0
51′90′: J. K. Konterud on the scoresheet for Kongsvinger II, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 99–1–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Kongsvinger II 5–1 Fauske Sprint
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Kongsvinger II 5–1 Fauske Sprint · J. K. Konterud
53′58′: J. K. Konterud on the scoresheet for Kongsvinger II, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 99–1–0
53′63′: L. Braten on the scoresheet for Kongsvinger II, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 99–1–0
64′We said Kongsvinger II at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 5–1 · 100–0–0
68′Kongsvinger II find the net on 68′. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
68′7 goals already, more than the 6.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kongsvinger II 6–1 Fauske Sprint
69′Kongsvinger II ahead on 79′ through A. Donnum. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
81′A goal for Fauske Sprint on 81′ — 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
81′P. Bangfil scores for Fauske Sprint on 90′ — 6–2. 6–2 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Kongsvinger II 6–2 Fauske Sprint
FTFULL TIME Kongsvinger II 6–2 Fauske Sprint
FTKongsvinger II 6–2 Fauske Sprint · Kongsvinger II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kongsvinger II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kongsvinger II 52%, draw 15%, Fauske Sprint 33%. Over 2.5 goals 93%, both teams to score 89%.

The AI’s read on Kongsvinger II v Fauske SprintBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kongsvinger II win52%

Draw15%

Fauske Sprint win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kongsvinger II

Fauske Sprint

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kongsvinger II	23	−17	32
8	Fauske Sprint	23	−15	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kongsvinger ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

52% The market56%

Us52%

~~Market~~56%

We make Kongsvinger II a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kongsvinger II v Fauske Sprint~~3.33 – 2.73

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 31~~7 v 8

~~The market · Kongsvinger II win~~56% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kongsvinger II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kongsvinger II win	52%	56%	−4
Draw	15%	20%	−5
Fauske Sprint win	33%	23%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	93%	82%	+11
Both teams to score	89%	78%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	98%	93%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	84%	66%	+18
Kongsvinger II or draw	67%	77%	−10
Kongsvinger II clean sheet	7%	–	–
Fauske Sprint clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–2 at 5.1%

0123450 1 2.2 3.0 2.7 2 3.7 4.7 4.2 2.8 3 4.0 5.1 4.4 3.0 4 3.2 4.1 3.6 2.5 5 2.2 2.8 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kongsvinger II down, Fauske Sprint across0–5 goals a side shown (80.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 980 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kongsvinger II at home: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fauske Sprint away: 2.50 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.33 goals for Kongsvinger II, 2.73 for Fauske Sprint. Most likely score 3–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FAU 2–1 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept

KONGSVINGER II

LLLWWW1–3 · 1–5 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 4–3 · 4–2

FAUSKE SPRINT

WWWLLL6–1 · 5–3 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Fløya	23	+29	45
3	Alta	23	+26	45
4	Harstad	23	+36	43
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	23	+5	33
7	Kongsvinger II	23	−17	32
8	Fauske Sprint	23	−15	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15