Kongsvinger II v Bossekop prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Kongsvinger II 4–2 Bossekop KONGSVINGER II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kongsvinger II win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.188

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kongsvinger II win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF Kongsvinger II v Bossekop
2′Much as we predicted: Kongsvinger II was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–15–20
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Kongsvinger II 1–0 Bossekop
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kongsvinger II 2–0 Bossekop
39′Kongsvinger II ahead on 33′ through I. Elseth. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 92% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 61% now
40′Kongsvinger II ahead on 33′ through I. Elseth. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 92% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 61% now
45′HALF-TIME Kongsvinger II 2–0 Bossekop
46′SECOND HALF Kongsvinger II 2–0 Bossekop
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 92% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Kongsvinger II win: 65% at kick-off, 92% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kongsvinger II 2–1 Bossekop
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kongsvinger II 2–1 Bossekop
61′⚽ GOAL · 59' Kongsvinger II 2–1 Bossekop
62′⚽ GOAL · 60' Kongsvinger II 2–1 Bossekop · M. Opgard
63′⚽ GOAL · 60' Kongsvinger II 2–1 Bossekop · M. Opgard
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Kongsvinger II 3–1 Bossekop
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Kongsvinger II 3–2 Bossekop
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Kongsvinger II 4–2 Bossekop
FTFULL TIME Kongsvinger II 4–2 Bossekop
FTKongsvinger II 4–2 Bossekop · Kongsvinger II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kongsvinger II win65%

Draw14%

Bossekop win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kongsvinger II

Bossekop

5Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kongsvinger ii winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Kongsvinger II a 65% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.9, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kongsvinger II win	65%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Bossekop win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	75%	–	–
Kongsvinger II or draw	79%	–	–
Kongsvinger II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Bossekop clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.0%

0123450 1 2.4 3.4 3.4 2.1 2 3.2 5.7 5.2 3.3 3 3.4 6.0 5.5 3.5 4 2.7 4.9 4.5 2.9 5 3.3 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Kongsvinger II down, Bossekop across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kongsvinger II at home: 1.83 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bossekop away: 2.67 scored, 5.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.30 goals for Kongsvinger II, 1.91 for Bossekop. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOS 0–2 KON

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

KONGSVINGER II

WLLLWW2–1 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 0–6 · 2–1 · 4–3

BOSSEKOP

WLDWLL2–1 · 0–11 · 1–1 · 4–3 · 0–3 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Fløya	23	+31	48
3	Alta	23	+26	45
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15