Fløya v Tromsø II prediction · 3. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Fløya 3–0 Tromsø II FLØYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fløya win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.185

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fløya win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Fløya 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–16–19
1′KICK-OFF Fløya v Tromsø II
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Fløya win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
42′We said Fløya at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–27–20
45′HALF-TIME Fløya 0–0 Tromsø II
46′SECOND HALF Fløya 0–0 Tromsø II
51′We said Fløya at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–31–19
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 4.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–34–19
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Fløya win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
60′We said Fløya at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–38–18
66′A goal for Fløya on 66′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
66′We said Fløya at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Fløya 1–0 Tromsø II
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Fløya win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
71′We said Fløya at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Fløya win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
81′We said Fløya at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
84′Fløya score on 84′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′We said Fløya at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Fløya 2–0 Tromsø II
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Fløya win: 65% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′83′: G. Meyer on the scoresheet for Fløya, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
93′Fløya find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Fløya 3–0 Tromsø II
FTFULL TIME Fløya 3–0 Tromsø II
FTFløya 3–0 Tromsø II · Fløya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fløya are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fløya 65%, draw 16%, Tromsø II 19%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Fløya v Tromsø IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fløya win65%

Draw16%

Tromsø II win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fløya

Tromsø II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

Last match: 11 Oct · 3. Division - Girone 5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fløya winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Fløya a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fløya v Tromsø II~~2.66 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 45 v 27~~3 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fløya win	65%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Tromsø II win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Fløya or draw	81%	–	–
Fløya clean sheet	26%	–	–
Tromsø II clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 3.1 1 5.5 6.1 4.4 2.0 2 6.4 8.3 5.6 2.6 3 5.6 7.2 4.9 2.3 4 3.7 4.9 3.3 5 2.1 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Fløya down, Tromsø II across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 982 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.8% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 7 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fløya at home: 4.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tromsø II away: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for Fløya, 1.36 for Tromsø II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TRO 2–3 FLO · TRO 3–0 FLO · FLO 2–1 TRO · FLO 1–2 TRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5 this season · since 5 Sept

FLØYA

DWWWWW2–2 · 5–1 · 3–1 · 4–2 · 5–1 · 3–1

TROMSØ II

LLWWDW0–1 · 2–3 · 6–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	23	+23	50
2	Harstad	24	+41	46
3	Fløya	23	+29	45
4	Alta	24	+21	45
5	Finnsnes	23	+5	37
6	Kongsvinger II	24	−13	35
7	Skjetten	23	+5	33
8	Fauske Sprint	24	−19	31
9	Lillestrøm II	23	+13	28
10	Tromsø II	23	+4	27
11	Strømsgodset II	23	−3	27
12	Skjervøy	23	−21	27
13	Bossekop	23	−42	19
14	Ulfstind	23	−43	15