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Finnsnes v Ulfstind

Finnsnes

2–2Full time

Ulfstind

3. Division - Girone 5 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:00

Finnsnes 2–2 Ulfstind FINNSNES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Finnsnes win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.354

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Finnsnes win76%

Draw12%

Ulfstind win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · finnsnes winPublished 9 Oct 20:33

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Finnsnes a 76% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–1.2, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Finnsnes win	76%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Ulfstind win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Finnsnes or draw	88%	–	–
Finnsnes clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ulfstind clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.2 1 4.8 4.6 2.9 2 6.6 7.5 4.4 3 6.7 7.6 4.5 4 5.3 6.0 3.5 5 3.4 3.9 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Finnsnes down, Ulfstind across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 3. Division - Girone 5 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

3. Division - Girone 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.5% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Finnsnes at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ulfstind away: 1.00 scored, 5.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.16 goals for Finnsnes, 1.18 for Ulfstind. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ULF 1–3 FIN

Form · last six in 3. Division - Girone 5

FINNSNES

LLLLWD0–1 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–1

ULFSTIND

LLLLLL1–2 · 1–6 · 1–6 · 3–4 · 0–7 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Skedsmo	22	+25	50
2	Fløya	22	+29	45
3	Alta	22	+25	42
4	Harstad	22	+34	40
5	Finnsnes	22	+5	36
6	Skjetten	22	+9	33
7	Fauske Sprint	22	−13	31
8	Kongsvinger II	22	−19	29
9	Lillestrøm II	22	+15	28
10	Skjervøy	22	−20	27
11	Strømsgodset II	22	−7	24
12	Tromsø II	22	0	21
13	Bossekop	22	−40	19
14	Ulfstind	22	−43	14